Center for Strategic Studies
The Future of U.S. Deterrence: Constructing Effective Strategies to Deter States and Non-State Actors
A September 18, 2007 conference hosted by CNA, in support of OPNAV Strategy and Policy Division (N5SP), to discuss the future of U.S. nuclear and conventional deterrence. The conference convened leading members of the policy, defense, and research communities to examine the applicability and role of deterrence and escalation strategies in the current and emerging security environment. This report is not a summary of all the presentations, nor an agreed-upon list of findings by the conference participants. Rather, it presents CNA's view of the most relevant and useful highlights of the conference.
The Struggle for Unity and Authority in Islam: Reviving the Caliphate
A May 2007 conference sponsored by CNA and Wilton Park Conferences convened scholars and practitioners from across the Muslim world to discuss modern-day views on re-establishing the Caliphate, an Islamic form of government in which political and religious leadership is united under a single head of state—the Caliph.
U.S. Navy Capstone Strategies & Concepts (1970-2008) Insights for the U.S. Navy of 2009 and Beyond
PowerPoint draft brief to provide context and perspective on recent U.S. Navy experience, contribute to situational awareness on U.S. Navy strategy, and to make recommendations regarding U.S. Navy strategy way ahead.
Political-Military Trends in Italy, Greece, and Spain
The U.S. Navy maintains a presence ashore in Italy, Greece, and Spain, which means the United States must work cooperatively with those countries on anti-terrorism and force protection. That cooperation is shaped by the host nations’ security concerns, national politics, and their developing security issues.
The authors of a new paper from CNAC on political-military trends in the three countries make several observations and recommendations, including:
- The host nations largely agree on the main security challenges facing them, including immigration, maritime safety, and terrorism. Those issues provide common ground for U.S.-European cooperation;
- Many European countries are seeking solutions to security problems that bolster European and national positions rather than support a dominant U.S. position;
- Italy, Greece, and Spain all support the use of their countries for U.S. missions to other areas, including the Gulf;
- Future cooperation on anti-terrorism and force protection between the Navy and its host nations will depend in part on the Navy’s capacity to engage diplomatically with local, regional, and national authorities.
For the Record: All U.S. Forces’ Responses to Situations, 1970-2000
In 2000, CNAC issued "U.S. Naval Responses to Situations, 1970-1999," a study that examined U.S. naval forces' responses to situations around the world over the three-decade period.
At the request of the Department of the Navy, CNAC analysts then expanded the work to include responses to situations by all branches of the U.S. military through 2000. This version, issued in May 2005, includes an annex covering through mid-2003.
It is important to note that the additional days spent by U.S. forces in the 1990s in responses to situations over the previous two decades were concentrated in four places: Somalia, Haiti, Bosnia/Kosovo, and Iraq. A much higher proportion of responses in the 1990s involved more than one branch of the military or forces from other countries.
"Forward…From the Start": The U.S. Navy & Homeland Defense: 1775-2003
This study comprehensively but briefly analyzes the history of U.S. Navy involvement in the direct defense of the American homeland. It demonstrates that this mission area comes and goes, but is seldom primary for the Navy. Rather, the Navy's focus has normally been on far forward operations, to "shoot the archers before they have a chance to loose their arrows." A principal explanation is that the country has developed over time two strong military seagoing teams to play both "home" and "away" games — a U.S. Coast Guard and a U.S. Navy. Each team has a long tradition of supporting the other.
Analysis of U.S. Military Response
While U.S. military forces were involved in separately named operations 170 times in the 1970s, 230 times in the 1980s, and approximately 280 times in the 1990s, these figures are misleading, especially since the named operations in the 1990s were mostly concentrated in four situations – Somalia, Haiti, Bosnia/Kosovo, and Iraq – and most other operations were small. The study compiles the nature and character of each of these named operations, including their locations, types of mission, kinds of forces, and durations.
Russia Between West and East
After September 11, 2001, President Vladimir Putin strongly reaffirmed his westward foreign policy. This paper reflects on the long history of Russia's veering between east and west, and internal and international concentration, and reaffirms its need as a new nation to make global connections, especially with the West, as it tries to create a competitive economy.
US-Russian Relations After Iraq
The report summarizes seminar discussions among experts at The CNA Corporation, the Institute for USA and Canada Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ISKRAN), as well as representatives from other think tanks and former diplomats. They discuss the global strategic picture after the US conquest and occupation of Iraq and the continuing Russian desire to maintain relations with the U.S.
The North Korean Leadership: Evolving Regime Dynamics in the Kim Chong-il Era
This study offers the preliminary findings of ongoing research and analysis of the leadership of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK). It introduces the reader to some of the distinguishing features of North Korean elite politics and the leadership system and provides insights into the key personalities surrounding Kim Chong-il.
The paper is based on extensive interviews conducted by the author over the past decade with a number of "Pyongyang watchers," which include former diplomats who have served in North Korea, former ROK officials, journalists, and academics.
The nature of the inner workings of the regime in Pyongyang remains enigmatic. Consequently, one offers insights into it with a good deal of humility. Nevertheless, this paper shares findings with interested readers—findings that will provide, we hope, broader context for policy-makers and other interested analysts.
Social Change and Dissent in Iran: Conference Report, May 2003
In February 2003, the CNA Corporation hosted a conference with Iranian-American academics and writers to address current political and demographic trends in Iran. The Conference Report summarizes those discussions.
Iran has been an important regional power for more than a millennium. In the 21st century, Iran's vast natural resources, including the world's second largest gas reserve and third largest oil reserves, add to its strategic weight. Additionally, Iran's growing population is increasingly young, literate, and urban. However, a faltering economy has failed to generate enough jobs, and unemployment among university graduates is estimated at 20 percent.
In light of these developments, Iranian experts discussed the implications of social change and dissent in Iran. Participants discussed the emerging role of women in Iranian society and their struggle for legal and social rights; the political implications of a society driven by a younger population and internal reform efforts; the clash of pro-western desires and traditional Iranian culture; and the rise of public health issues such as drug abuse and HIV/AIDS cases among the Iranian population.
Islam in Indonesia's Political Future
This paper analyzes the role of political Islam and radical Islam, in particular, in Indonesia over the next 5 to 10 years.
The Evolution of Military Reform in Russia
CNAC analysts looked at Russia's need and struggle to reform its military. Military reform is greatly needed, but is not of a high priority for President Putin. It is necessary for Russia's military posture to be brought into line with both the security environment (for which the near-term threat is terror from the south) and the need to build the Russian economy through the private sector without excessive taxes and interference by the government – both factors continuing to restrict the Russian defense budget.
The South China Sea: A Regional Assessment
This study provides an in-depth look at the sometimes-turbulent South China Sea region. The paper presents a comprehensive discussion of the political, legal, military, economic and geographic issues that shape events in that region.
Selected papers & presentations
- Abbas William Samii, "Our Inalienable Right — Informal Networks and the Nuclear Issue in Iran," presented at "Over-the-Horizon Proliferation: Challenges for Interdiction and Counter-Proliferation Policy," a conference hosted by the Naval Postgraduate School's Center for Contemporary Conflict, June 2007.
- Kristen Gunness, "China's New Civil-Military Dynamic: Challenges and Opportunities for PLA Modernization," presented at The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, September 2006.
- Kristen Gunness, "China's Military Diplomacy in an Era of Change," presented at National Defense University's Pacific Symposium, June 20, 2006.
- Allen, Kenneth W., and Jeffrey Allen, "Controlling the Airspace over the Taiwan Strait," in If China Attacks Taiwan: Military Strategy, Politics and Economics, Steve Tsang, editor, Oxford: Routledge, December 2005.
- Kenneth W. Allen, "PLA Air Force Foreign Relations," Chinese Military Update of the Royal United Services Institute, London: Vol. 3, No. 1, November 2005.
- Bellacqua, James, "Biography: Liao Xilong," Chinese Military Update of the Royal United Services Institute, London: Vol. 3, No. 1, November 2005.
- Whiteneck, Daniel, "Deterring Terrorists: Thoughts on a Framework," Vol. 28, Issue 3, Washington Quarterly, Summer 2005.
- Henry J. Kenny, "China and the Competition for Oil and Gas in Asia," Asia-Pacific Review, Vol. 11, No. 2, 2004.
- Ken Gause, "Sino-North Korean Military Relations: Comrades-in-Arms Forever?" China Military Update of the Royal United Services Institute, London: Vol. 1, No. 10, May 2004.
- Peter Swartz, "Serving a Nation at War—A Campaign Quality Army with Joint and Expeditionary Capabilities," Proceedings, Vol. 130, August 2004.
- Kenny, Henry J., "China and the Competition for Oil and Gas in Asia," Asia-Pacific Review, Vol. 11, No. 2, 2004.
- Ken Gause, The North Korean Leadership: System Dynamics and Fault Lines, in North Korean Policy Elites, Institute for Defense Analyses, Washington, DC: May 2004.
- Ken Gause, "The Iranian Armed Forces," SP Military Yearbook, Guide Publications, New Delhi, India, 2004.
- Swartz, Peter, "The Maritime Strategy Debates," in The Evolution of the U.S. Navy's Maritime Strategy, 1977-1986, Newport: Naval War College, 2004.
- Kenneth W. Allen, "The PLA Air Force’s Mobile Offensive Operations," Taiwan’s Security and Air Power: Taiwan’s Defence Against the Air Threat from Mainland China, London: Routledge Curzen Press, December 2003.
- David Finkelstein, "Baozhang and the PLA: A Primer," presented at the CNAC-RAND PLA Conference, PLA Logistics and Sustainment, Airlie House, Warrenton, VA: December 2003.
- David Finkelstein, "Current Trends in U.S.-China Relations," presented to the Symposium on Sino-U.S.-European Relations, sponsored jointly by the China Institute of International Strategic Studies and the Hotung Institute, Beijing: November 2003.
- David Finkelstein, "Globalization and the Emerging World Order," presented at the National Defense University of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army, Beijing: November 2003.
- David Finkelstein, "The Role of the People’s Liberation Army in the Chinese Policymaking Process," presented at CSIS Conference, PRC Policymaking in the Wake of Leadership Change, Washington, DC: October 2003./li>
- David Finkelstein, "Operation Iraqi Freedom and The Chinese People's Liberation Army," presented at the CNAC-CSIS Conference, The War in Iraq and Implications for Asia, July 2003.
- Ken Allen, "PLA Officer and Enlisted Recruitment, Grades, and Ranks," Chinese Military Update of the Royal United Services Institute, London: Vol. 1, No. 1, June 2003.
- David Finkelstein, "The Changing Face of the Chinese Media: Challenges for Analysis," presented to Heritage Foundation, Washington, DC: May 2003.
- Peter Swartz, "Forward …from the Start," Proceedings, Vol. 129, pp. 80-86, May 2003.
- David Finkelstein, Regional Views of Cross-Strait Relations: The U.S. Perspective, presented at the conference Cross-Straits Challenges & Third Party Engagement, sponsored by the Center for Strategic & International Studies, Honolulu, HI, April 2003.
- Michael McDevitt, "Evolving U.S. Security Policy in East Asia," Japan-U.S. Security Relations: Managing Future Challenges, A Conference Report, Issues & Insights, Vol, 3, No. 8, Pacific Forum CSIS, California: March 2003.
- David Finkelstein, "National Missile Defense and China's Current Security Perceptions," China and Missile Defense: Managing U.S.-PRC Strategic Relations, Alan D. Romberg and Michael McDevitt, editors, Henry L. Stimson Center, Washington, DC: February 2003.
- David Finkelstein, "China and Central Asia: Enduring Interests & Contemporary Concerns," presented at the Center for Strategic and International Studies Program, China and Central Asia, February 5, 2003.
- Henry Kenny, "Vietnamese Perceptions of the 1979 War With China," Chinese Warfighting: The PLA Experience Since 1949, Mark Ryan, David Finkelstein, and Michael McDevitt, eds. M. E. Sharpe, 2003.
- Michael McDevitt & Alan D. Romberg, "China and Missile Defense, Managing U.S. PRC Strategic Relations," The Henry L. Stimson Center, Washington, DC: 2003.
- Michael McDevitt, David Finkelstein and Mark Ryan, Chinese Warfighting, The PLA Experience Since 1949, M.E. Sharpe, New York and London: 2003.
- Peter Swartz, "Preventing the Bear’s Last Swim: The NATO Concept of Maritime Operations (CONMAROPS) of the Last Cold War Decade," Nato’s Maritime Power 1949-1990, INMER Publications, 2003.
