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Adaptive Enemies Robert Scales, Jr., Joint Force Quarterly, Autumn/Winter 1999/2000
Adaptive Leaders and the Interim Brigade Combat Team Colonel Kent E. Ervin, US Army, and Lieutenant Colonel David A. Decker, US Army
After the cataclysm: a systems analysis Allenna Leonard
AGENT-BASED
SIMULATION OF MILITARY OPERATIONS OTHER THAN WAR SMALL UNIT COMBAT
Ronald F. A. Woodaman, Thesis, NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL Monterey,
California, September 2000
Alien intellects to tame terrorism Tessa Denton, Australian IT, 02 October 2001
Alternating Currents: Technology and the New Context for U.S. Foreign Policy Brian P. Curran, William J. Durch, and Jolie M. F. Wood, The Henry L. Stimson Center
Analysing
Conflicts
Hussein Solomon
A New Mindset for Warfare William M. Arkin, Washington Post, September 22, 2001
Anticipating
the Nature of the Next Conflict
Col. G.I. Wilson USMCR Maj. Frank Bunkers USMCR, Sgt John P. Sullivan, Los
Angeles County Sheriff's Department
Assessing Threats of
Targeted Group Violence: Contributions from Social Psychology
Marisa Reddy Pynchon and Randy Borum, Behavioral Sciences and the Law,
1999
Asymmetric
Conflict: 2010
Brad Roberts, IDA
Asymmetric Threat: Listening to the Debate Robert Steele
Asymmetric
Warfare: An Emerging Threat to U.S. Security
Jonathan B. Tucker, Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Monterey Institute
of International Studies
ASYMMETRIC
WARFARE: IS THE ARMY READY?
Robert H. Allen
[B]
Back
to the Future with Asymmetric Warfare
Vincent J. Goulding, Jr., Parameters, Winter 2000-01, pp. 21-30
BEYOND
THE THIRD WAY: THE SCIENCE OF COMPLEXITY AND THE POLITICS OF CHOICE
Robert Geyer, School of Politics and Communications Studies, University of
Liverpool
[C]
C2
For Emergent Situations: An Australian Perspective
Jennie Clothier, Electronic and Surveillance Research Laboratory, Defence
Science and Technology Organisation, Salisbury, South Australia
Changing Face of War: Into the Fourth Generation William S. Lind, Colonel Keith Nightengale (USA), Captain John F. Schmitt (USMC), Colonel Joseph W. Sutton (USA), and Lieutenant Colonel Gary I. Wilson (USMCR)
CHAOS
AND SOCIAL CONTROL: Managing Non-Linear Social Dynamics
T. R. Young, The Red Feather Institute June, 1992
CIVIL WAR, TERRORISM and GANGS: The System of Sociology and Social Dynamics Raddai RAIKHLIN
Clausewitz and Counter-Terrorism Frank Young, National Defense Univerity, 1997 (Student essay)
Coherent Policy-making Beyond the Information Barrier Anthony Judge, Union of International Associations, Belgium
Coming Anarchy Robert Kaplan, Atlantic Online, 1994
Command
&Control - the Management of Conflict
Derek K Hitchins
Complex
Societies: The Evolutionary Origins of a Crude Superorganism
Peter J. Richerson, Department of Environmental Science and Management,
University of California Davis, CA and Robert Boyd, Anthropology Department,
University of California Los Angeles, CA
Computer
Robots Gather Intelligence
Jim Krane, Excite News, 28 Sep 2001
Computer
Security in Aviation: Vulnerabilities, Threats, and Risks
Peter G. Neumann Principal Scientist, Computer Science Laboratory, SRI
International, Menlo Park CA
A CONSTRUCTIVIST APPROACH TO DISTANCE LEARNING FOR COUNTERTERRORIST INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS Tamitha Carpenter, Daniel Fu, Phillip Michalak, Laurie Spencer, Stottler Henke Associates, CA and Luciano Iorizzo, US Army Intelligence Center
Contagiousness of Aircraft Hijacking Robert T. Holden, Indiana University
Countering
the New Terrorism
Ian O. Lesser, Bruce Hoffman, John Arquilla, David F. Ronfeldt, Michele
Zanini, and Brian Michael Jenkins, RAND Corporation
Counterproliferation,
Counterterrorism, And Homeland Defense:A Threat Analysis
Anthony H. Cordesman
Cultural
Barriers to Multinational C2 Decision Making
Helen Altman Klein, Anna Pongonis and Gary Klein
Cultural
Lens: Seeing through the Eyes of the Adversary
Gary Klein, Klein Associates
Cyberterrorism
and Private Corporations: New Threat Models
Toby Blyth
Defining
and Measuring Shared Situational Awareness
Albert A. Nofi, Center for Naval Analyses
Developing
a Construct for Modeling Asymmetric Warfare Presentation
Martin Kleiner, LOGICON
Developing
a methodology for the evaluation of cooperative systems
Magnus Ramage, CSCW Research Centre, Lancaster University, UK
The
Development of Progressive and Sustainable Human Complex Adaptive Systems:
Institutions, Organizations, and Communities
Kiersten Blair Johnson, University of Maryland, 1999
Diplomacy in the Information Age: Implications for Content and Conduct Jeff Cooper
DoD USS COLE COMMISSION REPORT 9 January 2001
Electronically
Mediated Communications: Are bifurcations in Consciousness and Culture being
driven by the 'Tribes of the Internet'?
Fred Abraham, Blueberry Brain Institute, David Houston, Computing &
Information Technology University Of Vermont
Ethnic
Conflict: What Kind of War is This?
Pauletta Otis, Naval War College Review, Volume LII, Autumn 1999 (HTML
version)
Ethnicity
and Self-Organization
Nils Zurawski; see also Ethnicity:
Difference, Violence, and Origin
Evolution of War: The Fourth Generation LtCol Thomas X. Hammes
EXCERPTS FROM COPING WITH UNCERTAINTY Insights From the New Sciences of Chaos, Self-Organization, and Complexity Uri Merry
FIVE-DIMENSIONAL (CYBER) WARFIGHTING: CAN THE ARMY AFTER NEXT BE DEFEATED THROUGH COMPLEX CONCEPTS AND TECHNOLOGIES? Robert J. Bunker
THE
FOG OF PEACE: FINDING THE END-STATE OF HOSTILITIES
Manfred K. Rotermund
Formation
of Economic and Social Networks
Link list maintained by Leigh Tesfatsion, Department of Economics, Iowa
State University
Fourth Generation Warfare
Fundamentalism,
Spartanism and the Games Subcultures Play
Howard Bloom, History of the Global Brain XVIII
FUTURE
LEADERSHIP, OLD ISSUES, NEW METHODS
Douglas V. Johnson II
Globalization, Cultural Symbols, and Group Consciousness: Culture as an Adaptive Complex System Richard Jenner, San Francisco State University
Globalization
of Law: A Systemic and Cybernetic Phenomenon
Ernesto Grün
Global Power Networks Chris Lucas
Global Threats and Challenges Through 2015 Vice Admiral Thomas R. Wilson, Director, Defense Intelligence Agency Statement for the Record Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, 7 February 2001
Global
Trends 2015: A Dialogue About the Future With Nongovernment Experts
Prepared under the direction of the National Intelligence Council
GOVERNANCE
UNDER FIRE: ORGANIZATIONAL FRAGILITY IN COMPLEX SYSTEMS
Louise K. Comfort; see also Briefing
Slides
How Emotions
and Personality Effect the Utility of Alternative Decisions: A Terrorist
Target Selection Case Study
Michael Johns, Barry G. Silverman, Computer & Info Science Dept.,
University of Pennsylvania
Identifying
Potential Ethnic Conflict: Application of a Process Model
Thomas S. Szayna, RAND Corporation
Identifying
terrorists before they strike
Steve Kirsch; see Brain
Fingerprinting
In
Athena's Camp: Preparing for Conflict in the Information Age (On-line
collection of papers)
Edited by John Arquilla and David Ronfeldt, RAND
Indicators
and Information Systems for Sustainable Development
Balaton Group; see also Theory,
Method and Applications
Individual
Differences and Social Networks: Implications for Modeling Asymmetric
Warfare Presentation
Eva Hudlicka (Psychometrics Associates, MA) and Greg Zacharias
(Charles River Analytics, MA)
Information
Operations and the Conduct of Land Warfare
Robert J. Bunker
Information
or Knowledge Warfare?
Josip Pajk
Information
Warfare and the Asymmetric Threat: An Approach to Early Warning
Andrew Rathmell, International Centre for Security Analysis, Department of
War Studies, King’s College London, United Kingdom
In Search of Regional '
Fragmegrative' Dynamics: Integration and Fragmentation in the Americas in
the Post- Wesphalian Era
Vilma E. Petrásh, UNIVERSIDAD CENTRAL DE VENEZUELA
Intelligence
analysis software could predict attacks
Duncan Graham-Rowe, October 1, 2001, New Scientist on-line; see KARNAC
by Applied Systems Intelligence
INSNA
= International Network for Social Network Analysis
See, for example, tools for
analysis and visualization
Internet's
Achilles' Heel: Error and attack tolerance of complex networks
R. Albert and H. Jeong and A. Barabsi; see also The
missing links, Philip Ball, Nature on-line
ISLAM'S WAR AGAINST THE WEST Howard Bloom (from Lucifer Principle)
Insurgency
in the Contemporary World: Some Theoretical Aspects
Maj Gen Ashok Krishna (Retd), Senior Fellow, IDSA
Intelligent
Hostile Urban Threat Agents for MOUT Operations
K.A. Harper, S.S. Ho, and G.L. Zacharias, Proceedings of the 9th Conference
on Computer Generated Forces and Behavior Representation, Orlando, FL, 2000
Intelligent
Threat Assessment Processor (ITAP) using Genetic Algorithms and Fuzzy Logic
P. Gonsalves, R. Cunningham, and N. Ton, Proceedings of the 3rd
International Conference on Information Fusion, Paris, France, 2000
Intelligence
Analysis for Internet Security: Ideas, Barriers and Possibilities
Timothy J. Shimeall, Casey J. Dunlevy, Phil Williams, CERTŇ Analysis
Center, Software Engineering Institute, Carnegie Mellon University
Intelligent
Knowledge Management and Discovery (TIKManD); Terrorism and Criminal
Activity Recognition
Masoud Nikravesh, Lotfi A. Zadeh, Berkeley Initiative in Soft Computing
Inter-Dimensionality: A Revolution in Military Theory Antulio J. Echevarria
International Organization Networks: A Complementary Perspective Anthony Judge, Union of International Association
International Terrorism and Crime James Anderson, James Madison University
In
the Next Chapter, Is Technology an Ally?
Katie Hafner, NY Times, September 27, 2001
Knowledge and National Power McNair Paper 59, National Defense University, Right Makes Might: Freedom and Power in the Information Age, Chapter 3, May 1998
Leadership,
Adaptive Tension, and Complexity
Bill McKelvey; see also shorter
paper.
Lessons
of the Virus
Eric Norlin
Managing
the ambiguity of complexity : how to neutralize the terrorism of Jokers in a
world without Batman
Thierry C. Pauchant, professor of management, HEC Montreal
Many
Damn Things Simultaneously: Complexity Theory and World Affairs
James N. Rosenau
Mapping
Networks of Terrorist Cells
Valdis E. Krebs, Connections 24(3): 31-34
Micro/NanoSatellites
Martin Sweeting, Guardian Unlimited, Wednesday October 10, 2001
Military
Operations in Low Intensity Conflict
...APPENDIX
C: How to Analyze an Insurgency or Counterinsurgency
Army FM 100-20
Military
Tests Software Agents For Quick Intelligence
Jim Krane, Associated Press
Modeling and
Simulating Terrorist Decisionmaking: A Performance Moderator Function
Approach to Generating Virtual Opponents
Barry G. Silverman, Univeristy of Pennsylvania
Modeling
Civil Violence: An Agent-Based Computational Approach
JOSHUA M. EPSTEIN, JOHN D. STEINBRUNER, MILES T. PARKER, Brooking Institute
Modelling
social systems as complex: Towards a social simulation meta-model
Chris Goldspink, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol.
3, no. 2, 2000
Modern
Terrorist Mindset: Tactics, targets and technologies
Bruce Hoffman, Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence, St.
Andrews University, Scotland
More Realistic
Human Behavior Models for Agents in Virtual Worlds
Barry Silverman, University of Pennsylvania
Multidimensional
Evaluation of Biological Sensors for Force Protection
Jack Jacobs, Dimitris Lagoudas, and Robin Murphy, Institute for Defense
Analyses
Networks,
Netwar & Information-Age Terrorism
John Arquilla, David Ronfeldt and Michelle Zanini, RAND; see also HTML
version
New World Coming:
American Security in the 21st Century - Study Addendum
The United States Commission on National Security/21st Century, September
15, 1999
Optimal
Search for a Moving Target: A Geometric Approach
V. Ablavsky, M. Snorrason, Proceedings of the 2000 AIAA Guidance, Navigation
and Control Conference, Denver, CO, 2000
Patterns
of Global Terrorism (1999)
Department of State Publication, Office of the Secretary of State
Office of the Coordinator for Counterterrorism, Released April 2000
Possible Contribution of AI to the Avoidance of Crises and Wars: (HTML) Bibliography Robert Trappl, Johann Petrak, and Johannes Fürnkranz
Postcards from the Immune System Martin Libicki, National Defense University, from Defending Cyberspace and Other Metaphors, NDU Press Book, February 1997
PRECIPITATING THE DECLINE OF TERRORIST GROUPS: A SYSTEMS ANALYSIS (Abstract) Todd Deghetto, Navalk Post Graduate School, Thesis, 1994.
PRINCIPLES
OF WAR IN THE 21ST CENTURY: STRATEGIC CONSIDERATIONS
William T. Johnsen, Douglas V. Johnson II, James O. Kievit, Douglas C.
Lovelace, Jr. Steven Metz
Problem Solving Agents: Sensible Agents K. Suzanne Barber, The Laboratory for Intelligent Processes and Systems, Electrical and Computer Engineering, The University of Texas at Austin
[R]
Representation of Reality and Rhetoric Torsten Thurén, Thesis
Representing Social Structures in UML H. Van Dyke Parunak, ERIM, Ann Arbor, MI and James Odell, James Odell Associates, Ann Arbor, MI
Rise of Complex Terrorism Thomas Homer-Dixon, Foreign Policy
Road Map for National Security: Imperative for Change Compiled by The U.S. Commission on National Security/21st Century
Science
of Surprise Can complexity theory help us understand the real consequences
of a convoluted event like September 11?
Dana Mackenzie, Discover Magazine
'Self-Assembly'
Leaves Large Networks Vulnerable to Attack
FLORENCE OLSEN, Information Technology
Self
Organization in Disaster Mitigation and Management: Increasing Community
Capacity for Response
L. Comfort, Y. Sungu, M. Huber, J. Piatek, M. Dunn, and D. Johnson, IISIS
Project, University Center for Social and Urban Research, University of
Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA
SELF
ORGANIZATION IN DISASTER RESPONSE: THE GREAT HANSHIN, JAPAN EARTHQUAKE OF
JANUARY 17, 1995
Louise K. Comfort, Graduate School of Public and International Affairs,
University of Pittsburgh; see Shared
Risk: Complex Systems in Seismic Response (Oxford Univ. Press)
The
Sims Take on Al Qaeda
LA Times, November 2, 2001
Six
Degrees of Mohamed Atta
Thomas A. Stewart
Social Capital, Technology Diffusion and Sustainable Growth in the Developing World David A. Robalino, chapter 3 from Social Capital, Technology Diffusion and Sustainable Growth in the Developing World
Social
Cohesion and Embeddedness: A hierarchical conception of social groups
James Moody, Department of Sociology, Ohio State University,
University of California-Irvine and Douglas R. White, Department of
Anthropology The Ohio State University University of California-Irvine
Sociocultural
Self-Organization and the Primacy of the Infrastructure
Tom Abel
Software
robots may 'see' threats sooner
CNN Sci-Tech report, 29 Sep 2001
Soldiers,
Agents and Wireless Networks: A Report on the ActComm Scenarios and Testbed
Bob Gray
SPIRAL
DYNAMICS: Chapter 1
Don Beck and Chris Cowan
Spiral
View of Terrorism
Don Beck and Chris Cowan
SPRUT: A NEW
PROGRAM FOR VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS
Volkov, I. A., Gayevskiy, D. A., Zuyev, A. G., Pertsev, S. F., ISTA Group,
BTS SEC, St. Petersburg
STAGES
OF SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT: The Cultural Dynamics that Spark Violence, Spread
Prosperity, and Shape Globalization
Don Edward Beck
Strategic Assessment: Engaging Power for Peace Chapter 11: Asymmetric Threats Chapter 15: Adaptive Forces
Statistical Mechanics of Complex Networks Reka Albert and Albert-Laszlo Barabasi
STRATEGIC LINKS IN AN EMERGENT EPOCH: FROM PEOPLE TO COLLECTIVITIES AND BACK AGAIN James N. Rosenau, The George Washington University
Strategic Negotiations Model with Applications to an International Crisis Sarit Kraus
Strategic
Information Warfare
G.P.Siroli. Swiss Foreign and Security Network
Strategic Planning Amidst Massive Uncertainty in Complex Adaptive Systems: the Case of Defense Planning Paul K. Davis, RAND Graduate School
Swarming Attacks Challenge Western Way of War Alan D. Campen
System of Systems Admiral William A. Owens, in Dominant Battlespace Knowledge, edited By Stuart E. Johnson and Martin C. Libicki, NATIONAL DEFENSE UNIVERSITY, 1995
TAKEDOWN:
The Asymmetric Threat to the Nation
Robert David Steele, Open Source Solutions, Inc., Defense Daily
Network, 22 June 1998
Terrorism and
Al-Qaeda
Russ Marion (Clemson University) and Mary Uhl-Bien (University of Central
Florida)
Terrorist Networks: Mapping the Invisible Enemy Valdis Krebs; see also Krebs' Social Network Analysis of the the 19 (Sep 11, 2001) hijackers and their associates & Knowledge Networks
Terrorism Project Center for Defense Information
Threat Convergence Lieutenant Colonel Bill Flynt, US Army
Terrorism Control in the Tourism Industry G. Feichtinger, R.F. Hartl, P.M. Kort, and A.J. Novak
Terrorists Are Adaptive Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Shelton, 03 May 2001
TOWARD A GLOBAL SOCIAL
CONTRACT HUMAN NATURE, COMPLEXITY, AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
Michael J. Mazarr
Toward a Human
Behavior Modeling Anthology for Developing Synthetic Agents
Barry G. Silverman, Univeristy of Pennsylvania
Towards
Self-Healing Energy Infrastructure Systems
Massoud Amin
Transnational
and Homeland Defense: Software Tools for Biological Threat Reduction
Michael W. Trahan, Annette L. Sobel, Sandia National Laboratories
Understanding
Complex Social Dynamics: A Plea For Cellular Automata Based Modelling
Rainer Hegselmann and Andreas Flache, Journal of Artificial Societies and
Social Simulation, vol. 1, no. 3, 1998
Unexpected Innovation: Lessons from Simulating Complex Anarchical Environments Over the Internet Douglas A. Van Belle
United States Joint Forces Command Leading transformation of U.S. military forces
Unthinkable Becomes Real for a Horrified World Andrew Lawler
Using Multiple Mini-Sensors In Surveillance System
[V]
Warfare
in Transition and the Indian Subcontinent
Vinod Anand, Senior Fellow, IDSA
Wargaming
the Asymmetric Environment Presentation
Larry Willis, Information Systems Office
Wargaming:
Toward A Game Theoretic Perspective
G. M. Whittaker, The MITRE Corporation, September 2000
The
War on Violence: Our contribution?
Konrad_Richter
WATER
SYSTEM COMPLEXITY AND THE MISUSE OF MODELING AND OPTIMIZATION
Yacov Y. Haimes, Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems,
University of Virginia
WE BOMB, THEREFORE WE ARE: THE EVOLUTION OF TERRORIST GROUP LIFE CYCLES (Abstract) Charles Lockett, Naval Post Graduate School, 1994.
What Disaster Response Management Can Learn From Chaos Theory Conference Proceedings May 18-19, 1995, edited by Gus A. Koehler, CA State Library
What Makes a Terrorist? Lee Ann Jacobs, State Government News, October 201
Why Agents? On the Varied Motivations for Agent Computing in the Social Sciences Rob Axtell, Brookings Institute
WORLD AS A SOCIAL SYSTEM Wallace H. Provost Jr.
After the cataclysm: a systems analysis Allenna Leonard
Assessing Threats of Targeted Group Violence: Contributions from Social Psychology Marisa Reddy Pynchon and Randy Borum, Behavioral Sciences and the Law, 1999
Complex Challenges: Global Terrorist Networks From Gottfried Mayer-Kress' weekly Complexity Digest (check all archived links regarding terrorism)
Cultural Barriers to Multinational C2 Decision Making Helen Altman Klein, Anna Pongonis and Gary Klein
Ethnicity and Self-Organization Nils Zurawski; see also Ethnicity: Difference, Violence, and Origin
GOVERNANCE
UNDER FIRE: ORGANIZATIONAL FRAGILITY IN COMPLEX SYSTEMS
Louise K. Comfort; see also Briefing
Slides
How Emotions
and Personality Effect the Utility of Alternative Decisions: A Terrorist
Target Selection Case Study
Michael Johns, Barry G. Silverman, Computer & Info Science Dept.,
University of Pennsylvania
ISLAM'S WAR AGAINST THE WEST Howard Bloom (from Lucifer Principle)
Lessons
of the Virus
Eric Norlin
Mapping
Networks of Terrorist Cells
Valdis E. Krebs, Connections 24(3): 31-34
Modeling and
Simulating Terrorist Decisionmaking: A Performance Moderator Function
Approach to Generating Virtual Opponents
Barry G. Silverman, Univeristy of Pennsylvania
Modeling
Civil Violence: An Agent-Based Computational Approach
JOSHUA M. EPSTEIN, JOHN D. STEINBRUNER, MILES T. PARKER, Brooking Institute
Networks, Netwar & Information-Age Terrorism John Arquilla, David Ronfeldt and Michelle Zanini, RAND; see also HTML version
PRECIPITATING THE DECLINE OF TERRORIST GROUPS: A SYSTEMS ANALYSIS (Abstract) Todd Deghetto, Navalk Post Graduate School, Thesis, 1994.
Science
of Surprise Can complexity theory help us understand the real consequences
of a convoluted event like September 11?
Dana Mackenzie, Discover Magazine
Statistical Mechanics of Complex Networks Reka Albert and Albert-Laszlo Barabasi
The
Sims Take on Al Qaeda
LA Times, November 2, 2001
Social
Cohesion and Embeddedness: A hierarchical conception of social groups
James Moody, Department of Sociology, Ohio State University,
University of California-Irvine and Douglas R. White, Department of
Anthropology The Ohio State University University of California-Irvine
Terrorist Networks: Mapping the Invisible Enemy Valdis Krebs; see also Krebs' Social Network Analysis of the the 19 (Sep 11, 2001) hijackers and their associates & Knowledge Networks
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