Publications

CNA Strategic Studies Publications

May 1, 2003
This is the report of the 16th CNAC-ISKRAN seminar held on 10 December 2002 at CNAC. The seminar was part of a series that dates back to 1991. The agenda covered US-Russia relations, Russia-NATO relations, the situation in the Caucasus and Caspian Sea areas, and convergence of US and Russian interests in the Middle East, particularly on Iraq. Also discussed at the seminar was the current situation with regard to strategic nuclear forces and treaties.
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April 1, 2003
This paper was the basis for remarks by the author at the Army War College's Annual Conference on the American Way of War, 9-10 April 2003. An "American Way of War" emerged after the end of the Cold War, in successive combat experiences. We at the CNA Corporation examined the eight main cases of combat from 1989 through 2002 to discern its characteristics. The U.S. has now successfully undertaken a ninth combat case-Operation Iraqi Freedom-in which the characteristics have generally been confirmed, but with some new twists. War-fighting is, of course, the core of what U.S. forces do. Around that core, we speak of some larger strategic functions, like deterrence, presence, interaction with allies, and, of course, preparing for the future, currently referred to as transformation. The paper discusses the effects on the strategic environment of the American Way of War."
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February 1, 2003
Written in the wake of the "9-11" terrorist attacks, this short paper lays out and draws conclusions from the long history of U.S. Navy involvement in what are now called "homeland defense" operations. Topics covered in the survey include: The submersibles and gunboats of the Revolution and the War of 1812; the creation (and subsequent reorientation forward) of a Home Squadron in 1840s; the innovative naval homeland defense systems of the Confederate Navy during the Civil War; the role of inshore U.S. Navy monitors during and after the Civil War; the massive failure of American homeland defense at Pearl Harbor in 1941; offshore antisubmarine warfare during both world wars; and Cold War U.S. Navy continental air defense and coastal underwater surveillance efforts. Analysis of the historical record shows that U.S. Navy forward offensive deployments have almost always taken precedence over homeland defense efforts; that naval systems and organizations originally developed for homeland defense usually migrate to other roles; and that naval homeland defense operations have almost always been embedded in larger joint, inter-agency and total force efforts, usually involving the U.S. Coast Guard. (A shorter version of this paper was published in the U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings May 2003 edition).
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September 1, 2002
Abstract:D6866 Although the initial burst of reformist energy that followed Soeharto's fall in 1998 has largely dissipated, the long-term prognosis for Indonesia remains basically positive. Expectations for democratic reform should be kept modest for the foreseeable future. President Megawati Sukarnoputri's opponents in the 2004 elections do not have strong political bases, and she appears likely to win re-election, but will probably govern with a shaky coalition. Political and government institutions, the judicial system, the police, and political parties are weak, and will gain strength only slowly. Parliament is unable to deal with more than a fraction of the legislation before it. The armed forces are not likely to take over, but will exercise considerable influence despite their formal removal from politics. Islamic-agenda political parties are divided: they may win up to 20% of the vote, but are not likely to coalesce around a single leader. The resilience of the Indonesian people is likely to prevent popular anger at government's failings from exploding.
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September 1, 2002
Indonesia's ability to deal with separatist pressures in Aceh and Papua is limited by weaknesses of leadership, vision, and institutional development. Even so, Indonesia is not likely to disintegrate. Policy toward separatist movements lacks coherence and consistency. Neither the insurgents nor the government appear able to achieve their goals through military action. Stalemate could lead to a quagmire for government troops, particularly in Aceh. Both the independence movement and the armed forces in that province have been responsible for a level of violence that compares with the worst periods in the 1990s. The government under President Megawati appears to be heading toward a renewed effort at a military solution, although talks with the insurgents continue. The separatist movement in Papua is weaker and poorly armed. Papuan leaders have united in a "Presidium" with which the government could negotiate, although the murder of a Papuan leader in November 2001-reportedly by army elements-has undercut the political track. Effective implementations of special autonomy laws for both regions could, over time, result in willing continuation of these territories as parts of Indonesia. The United States has only a limited ability to foster solutions in Aceh and Papua.
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September 1, 2002
Indonesia, the largest Muslim-majority country in the world, has experienced an unprecedented Islamic resurgence since the 1980s, as more Indonesians displayed their piety publicly and became more religiously observant. The predominant disposition among Muslims remained moderate and tolerant, committed to a pluralist government and to democracy. Beginning in the 1990s, however, former President Soeharto courted extremist Muslim groups to protect his power base. After his fall in 1998, hardline Islamists, including paramilitary militias, gained a level of influence far greater than their numbers would warrant, and today represent a serious challenge to the stability of Indonesia and to U.S. interests. They are not likely to gain power through elections, but will be able to influence some government policies and actions. Among the extremists, a relatively small number of Muslims, many of Yemeni ancestry, are prime candidates for al Qaeda links. U.S. assistance in critical areas, including media skills and outreach, to the two mainstream Islamic mass organizations can help the moderate mainstream regain its voice and influence
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August 1, 2002
In preparation for the transition to a new Administration in January 2001, CNAC conducted workshops with informed citizens in four U.S. cities: New York, Chicago, Atlanta, and San Francisco, with the last one conducted in December 2000. This report summarizes the views of those workshops participants. They were especially concerned that the United States stay active in the day-to-day world, and were less interested in transformation of U.S. forces for the future or in national missile defense. While circumstances have not permitted us to return for more discussions in these cities after 9/11/2001, we have nonetheless annotated this report to extrapolate their views to the post-9/11 situation. We believe that they would have fully supported the global war on terror, in close coordination with our allies around the world.
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July 1, 2002
Abstract:D6753 This study draws the connections from globalization to the U.S. Navy. "Globalization" is the description these days of the world system and its process of evolution, taking account of the attacks on 9/11/2001. The study draws attention to the gap between the core countries involved in globalization (a core that may expand) and those countries that are having difficulty integrating into the globalization system. The gap is particularly acute in the Middle East and South and Central Asia. The U.S. Navy plays an important role in joint forces in the Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean, and many of its improvements are appropriate to possible conflicts there. Its second role is contributing to stability in East Asia, and its tertiary role is visiting and exercising with allied navies. It is the best and biggest ocean-going navy in the world, and will remain so for the indefinite future. Altogether, though, these circumstances provide little guidance for the size and configuration of the U.S. Navy.
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July 1, 2002

In this project, we examined how U.S. maritime forces—the Navy and the Marine Corps—relate to globalization. The project builds on the survey of globalization done by the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) at the National Defense University (NDU). All considerations have been updated in light of 9/11 and subsequent U.S. actions in response.

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June 1, 2002
The issue is whether warning times for U.S. responses to situations are so short that the U.S. must maintain forces overseas -at land bases or at sea-in order to respond in a timely manner. We judged the length of warning time crudely: from the time a situation broke on the world scene until a U.S. operation began. As described herein, "breaking on the world scene" might be an incident or attack happening out of the blue ; but more often involves a precipitating incident in a local situation in which the U.S. government did not contemplate military intervention when the situation first appeared (e.g., Lebanon). How the U.S. government seizes the problem and begins deliberations at the NSC level is beyond the scope of this paper. A narrower, more technical definition would be from the time warning orders were sent from the President or Secretary of Defense through the Chairman, JCS, to the relevant Unified Commander. Those tend to be of a much shorter time; some cases are discussed in the annex to this paper, and extract from our 1997 study.
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