Selected Studies

The Experts’ Roundtable on Catastrophe—Altered Landscapes of Catastrophes: Insights from the Great East Japan Earthquake

Recognizing the unique attributes of the Great East Japan Earthquake and its vast potential for valuable lessons learned, a select, small group of experts met to review the timeline of events in Japan, assess the immediate impacts of the earthquake and tsunami, explore the cascading impacts felt across Critical Infrastructure Sectors, and identify key lessons learned for catastrophe planning in the United States.

The primary purpose of this meeting was to frame a public-private conversation about catastrophes. In a facilitated, roundtable-discussion format, experts explored how and why there is something fundamentally different about catastrophes in contrast with emergencies or even major disasters. Our goal is to identify fundamental shifts in established perspectives and actions caused by a catastrophe and explore the creation of a “new normal.” 

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Explosive Device Response Operations (EDRO) Target Capability Calculator

This calculator was developed to help bomb squad commanders and response planners determine the number of bomb teams needed within a squad based on the risks faced by the jurisdiction(s) they support. The tool estimates bomb team demand by considering a jurisdiction’s population, likely attack profile, and critical infrastructure/key resources. Bomb team demand estimates by population are derived by a survey of bomb squads across 23 counties and cities of different sizes and characteristics. The population estimates are further refined through TCL 2.0 planning factors as they relate to differing attack profiles and as selected by the user. Finally, bomb team requirements may be adjusted to account for threats to critical infrastructure.

In addition, the tool presents initial and life-cycle costs for acquiring and maintaining bomb teams. Costs are based on team configurations as specified in National Incident Management System (NIMS) resource typing definitions (team types and descriptions can be found within the tool itself). Planners can customize the costs and quantities of personnel and equipment to reflect the realities and needs of their jurisdiction. In this way, the tool provides jurisdiction-specific costs to assist with budgeting and the preparation of investment justification proposals.

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Summary of Proceedings CNA SMART Justice Symposium March 10, 2010

Summary of the March 9, 2010 CNA-sponsored Public Policy symposium “SMART Justice.” SMART (Strategically Managed Analysis and Research-driven, Technology based) policing uses technology, research, and analysis to support the strategic management of police activities. Symposium attendees included officials from state and local law enforcement agencies and the Department of Justice.

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Independent Board of Inquiry into the Oakland Police Department Incident of March 21, 2009

A public report of findings and recommendations concerning the March 21, 2009 murder of four Oakland Place Department personnel by a recently paroled prisoner. Authored by CNA Senior Advisor James K. “Chips” Stewart. Published December 2009.

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Climate Change, Migration, and Emergencies: In Search of a Policy Framework

Climate change has the potential, even likelihood, to fundamentally transform our understanding of homeland security, public safety, and especially our capacities and capabilities to adapt to emergencies. In this report, the focus is on how climate change will interact with migration, both as cause of large-scale population displacements and, in turn, as consequence of shifting settlement patterns.

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Why the Emergency Management Community Should be Concerned about Climate Change: A discussion of the impact of climate change on selected natural hazards

Increases in the concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases from activities such as burning fossil fuels and deforestation have caused a measurable increase in global temperatures. As greenhouse gas concentrations continue to increase, further changes in the Earth’s climate are expected. These changes may impact the location, frequency, and occurrence of natural hazards such as tropical cyclones, wildfires, floods, and winter storms. Thus, the historical data that are typically the basis of hazard identification and risk assessment may not accurately forecast future events. Consequently, we need to begin to evaluate and better understand how climate change could affect the identification and selection of disaster mitigation strategies, the types of preparedness activities that jurisdictions undertake, the execution of response operations, and the implementation of long-term recovery strategies. 

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Leveraging Exercise Programs in a New Fiscal Environment

Disasters can strike anytime, anywhere, with or without warning. Federal, State, local, tribal, and non-governmental agencies and organizations must be prepared to respond to natural and man-made emergencies of many different kinds including tornadoes, hurricanes, wildfires, explosions, earthquakes, floods, blizzards, pandemics, bio-security threats, and terrorist attacks. In the last decade, the preparedness of our nation to respond to these types of disasters has become a pressing concern.

Homeland security, emergency management, public health, agriculture, and other agencies and non-governmental organizations conduct and evaluate exercises to enhance preparedness. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) helps guide and coordinate homeland security exercise programs across all levels of government. DHS provides a standardized capabilities-based methodology for exercise design and evaluation — the Homeland Security Exercise and Evaluation Program (HSEEP), administers the National Exercise Program (NEP) to coordinate exercise planning across all levels of government, and establishes systems and tools, such as the Lessons Learned and Information Sharing System (LLIS).

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Understanding and Advancing Cross-Sector Collaboration in Homeland Security and Emergency Management

Over the last decade, public and private leaders have begun to develop sustainable networked partnerships in support of regional preparedness and risk management. These partnerships, or Multi-Organizational and Networked Alliances (MANA), are bringing government agencies, private businesses, and non-profit research organizations together in an attempt to develop collaborative solutions to shared challenges. The increasing complexity and interconnectedness of modern society, business and governmental operations has created systemic vulnerabilities and interdependencies that transcend public, private, and civic sector boundaries. The limitations of traditional organizational models and cross-sector coordinating structures to confront these challenges have given rise to this new, joint problem-solving approach…

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Helping Shape the Public Agenda

In the fall of 2008 the Carnegie Corporation created "Advice to the President" — a non-partisan website featuring a selection of ideas and reports to help shape the agenda of the Obama administration. The following CNA reports and studies were included on the site:

Multi-organizational and Networked Alliances Executive Session Report

On April 20, 2008, CNA, the Virginia Tech Disaster Risk Management Institute (Virginia Tech) and the Cooperative Leadership Institute (CLI) held an executive level discussion to further collective understanding of how collaborative, regional homeland security partnerships form among public, private, and academic organizations, the value they generate, and how they are sustained. This dialogue is part of a broader Multi-Organizational and Networked Alliances (MANA) initiative designed to facilitate and support the development and management of sustainable networks of public and private leaders in support of regional preparedness and risk management capabilities that will advance our nation's safety and security. The initiative’s goal is to provide executives and leaders with the knowledge and the analytical and collaborative tools they need to create and engage with such collaborative networks in support of information sharing, infrastructure protection, disaster management planning and operations, and other homeland security missions. This report presents key elements identified during this executive-level session as critical to the success of multi-agency and multi-jurisdictional collaborations, and summarizes the nature of the discussion. This report is intended to share the product of this discussion and to help identify areas for further research in this area.

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Analysis Planning for a Domestic Weapon-of-Mass-Destruction Exercise

This paper presents a general framework for weapons of mass destruction exercise design and exercise analysis. The framework covers exercise goals including, testing plans, and improving performance to help participating decision makers understand the immediate and longer term challenges and issues that can occur in the event of such a threat and helping hone their ability to respond to best protect the health and safety of people and communities.

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Domestic Weapons of Mass Destruction Training Requirements and Policy Recommendations for the Reserve Forces

CNA studied and helped establish training needs, standards, and priorities for the military Reserve forces to help them best respond to a weapons of mass destruction event. We provided the Reserve forces leadership with a framework for developing training requirements as well as a training baseline.

North American Continental Coordination and Management of Livestock Disease Outbreaks

CNA analysts participated in a multi-national exercise focusing on a hypothetical outbreak of foot and mouth disease among livestock. Hosted by the Texas Animal Health Commission; the Secretariat of Agriculture, Livestock, Rural Development, Fisheries and Food of the United Mexican States; and the United States Department of Agriculture, the exercise was designed to strengthen coordination between the US, Mexico, and Canada. Our analysts observed and collected data from five exercise sites. In addition, CNA analysts designed and facilitated a simulation exercise for members of the North American Foot and Mouth Disease Vaccine Bank Technical Committee that was held in coordination with the exercise.

Preparing Senior Government Decision-Makers for Public Health Emergencies

CNA designed and conducted several games that focused on honing the public health response to a smallpox outbreak. The games were designed to emphasize the response decisions that would need to be made at the operational and strategic levels in the event of a smallpox event. Methods were developed to test senior-level decision-making regarding medical, scientific, and public policy issues.

An Assessment of Southwest Border Enforcement

The U.S. Border Patrol asked CNA analysts to develop a method to model trends in attempted illegal border crossings, develop a method to estimate the probability that an illegal entry will be apprehended by the Border Patrol, and assess the effect that Border Patrol activity has on the number of illegal entry attempts.

To assist in making such an assessment, analysts examined the historical relationship between the number of illegal crossing apprehensions, the level of effort by the Border Patrol, and economic and social conditions that affect the flow of illegal immigrants across the border between the United States and Mexico.