Selected Studies

CNA Resource Analysis Publications

The Effect of Deployment Tempo on Marine Corps Selected Reserve Retention
July 1, 2007
Since September 11th, 2001, the Marine Corps has involuntarily activated considerable numbers of the Selected Marine Corps Reserve (SMCR) to support Operation Noble Eagle (ONE), Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF), and Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF). This presidential mobilization of the Reserves represents the longest period of involutary activations since the formation of the All-Volunteer Force. In this paper, we examine how this increase in operational tempo has affected the composition of and retention in the SMCR. We take two approaches in our analysis. First, we use descriptive statistics to understand changes in the SMCR between September 2001 and September 2006. Second, we use survival analysis to determine the effect of activation on a reservist’s decision to stay affiliated with the SMCR.
Read More
Retention of Female Surface Warfare Officers
July 1, 2007
If selection and classification policies do not provide a solution, where else should the Navy turn? Interviews of SWOs conducted by the Naval Postgraduate School have suggested that cultural factors and the difficulty to maintain a life-work balance are critical motivators of female SWO retention. The Navy has proposed pilot programs, such as sabbaticals and other off-on ramps, to ease the difficulty of maintaining a life-work balance. However, such proposals need broader approval from the Department of Defense and the Office of Management and Budget.
Read More
Navy Military, Government Civilians, and Contract Support by Missions and Tasks: A Corporate Production Sensitivity Analysis
May 1, 2007
This paper examines labor use trends for the Navy, with the objective of identifying support functions that are potential candidates for labor adjustments. The authors calculate total labor for Navy IGCA inventory based functions each year from FY 2002 through FY 2005 as the sum of military, civil service, and contractor work-years. The latter are estimated from annual contracting dollars and cost per contractor for the federal supply classification (FSC) codes that are associated with each of the IGCA functions. They sought output measures for the functions, but found that useable output measures could not be found for about half of the functions. They develop and use a system for ranking the potential of functions as candidates for labor adjustments and recommend 14 candidate functions for further detailed examination. They also provide a conceptual model of how these functional output measures might be used as inputs to a Leonteif input-output business interaction model which could link shore function outputs to warfighter requirements and capabilities.
Read More | Download Report
USMC Reserve Endstrength Model: User's Guide
April 1, 2007
As the Long War continues, the USMC Manpower and Reserve Affairs (M&RA) Reserve Manpower Planner must accurately forecast reserve endstrength to ensure that it meets numerical and budgetary thresholds. The planner makes these forecasts using a model contained in a Microsoft (MS) Excel spreadsheet. However, before our efforts, the structure and organization of the spreadsheet made it cumbersome and time consuming to use. The planner also had to manually enter data and several formulas—creating the potential for human error. In addition, the spreadsheet’s size was increasing and was rapidly approaching MS Excel’s worksheet limitations. The planner asked CNA to restructure the spreadsheet to extend its life until the Total Force Manpower Models Reengineering (TFMMR) program is operational and to reduce the potential for human error. The new spreadsheet has a number of benefits over the original spreadsheet, including an extended life span, greater simplicity in use, and less potential for error through the use of automated inputs and formula adjustment. This user’s guide provides a broad overview of how to use the spreadsheet.
Read More
Manpower Performance Indicators: Final Report
April 1, 2007
The Marine Corps devotes about 65 percent of its budget to personnel costs. Accurate and meaningful measures of effectiveness are needed to ensure the efficient and effective running of the manpower process and to identify possible problems. Thus, manpower performance indicators (MPIs) have been developed to measure performance to provide decision-makers with up-to-date information on a Marine Corps website. The annotated briefing describes 3 types of indicators. The first set of indicators is designed to measure stress on the force. These include rates of domestic and child abuse, divorce, desertions, suicides, attrition, and positive drug tests. They also include information on lost leave, the percentages of Marines receiving family separation allowance, and the number of Marines involved in exercise or unit training each month. The second set of indicators is for entry-level training. The indicators, by military occupational specialty, show average the length of entry-level training and the number of Marines trained in every 12-month period for the last two years. The third set of indicators is for Civilian Marines, both in the appropriated and non-appropriated workforce. These indicators allow the user to look at characteristics of the workforce (age, gender, race/ethnic background, prior military service, etc).
Read More
USMC Reserve Endstrength Model
April 1, 2007
As the Long War continues, the USMC Manpower and Reserve Affairs (M&RA) Reserve Manpower Planner must accurately forecast reserve endstrength to ensure that it meets numerical and budgetary thresholds. The planner makes these forecasts using a model contained in a Microsoft (MS) Excel spreadsheet. However, before our efforts, the structure and organization of the spreadsheet made it cumbersome and time consuming to use. The planner also had to manually enter data and several formulas—creating the potential for human error. In addition, the spreadsheet’s size was increasing and was rapidly approaching MS Excel’s worksheet limitations. The planner asked CNA to restructure the spreadsheet to extend its life until the Total Force Manpower Models Reengineering (TFMMR) program is operational and to reduce the potential for human error. The new spreadsheet has a number of benefits over the original spreadsheet, including an extended life span, greater simplicity in use, and less potential for error through the use of automated inputs and formula adjustment. This briefing provides an overview of our efforts, as well as appendices on the model’s inputs and outputs.
Read More
Sonar Use and Whale Strandings: Caribbean/SE U.S. Correlation Analyses
March 1, 2007
In most cases, the cause of strandings is unknown. Some identified causes include disease; parasite infestation; harmful algal blooms; injuries from ship strikers or fishery entanglements; and exposure to pollution, trauma, and starvation. A handful of mass strandings of marine mammals coincided in time and location with Navy sonar operations at sea. Although a conclusive "cause and effect" relationship has not been established, there is concern that military sonar could cause marine mammals, particularly beaked whales, to strand.
Read More
Time to Train in Self-Paced Courses and the Return on Investment from Course Conversion
March 1, 2007
The Human Performance and Acquisition Assessment Branch (N-173) asked the Center for Naval Analyses (CNA) to determine whether conversions of Navy courses to computerized self-paced format have decreased time to train, and, if so, whether these savings were achieved at the expense of students’ subsequent Navy success in C-School or later. To answer these questions, we analyzed the results of three A-School course conversions. We found that (1) converting courses to computerized self-paced format resulted in significant decreases in time to train (2) these savings were achieved with no apparent ill effects on students’ success in C-School or later Navy career progression (3) the Navy should expect that converting courses to computerized self-paced format will result in reductions in time to train of 10 to 30 percent, (4) decreases in time to train results in significant savings, both in man-years and monetary terms, (4) time awaiting transfer, after training, increased for some converted courses, (6) Navy Education and training should give priority to converting courses and content that have long course lengths and high student throughput. Further savings could occur by addressing the increase in time awaiting transfer (AT) that occurred after some courses.
Read More
Distributed Operations: Manpower Policies for Developing Small Unit Leaders
March 1, 2007
In April 2005, the Commandant of the Marine Corps approved a concept for distributed operations (DO). Taking that concept, the paper looks at what changes to manpower policies and processes would be necessary to ensure that the outlined DO requirements for sergeant Rifle Squad Leaders in their 5th through 7th year of service will be met.
Read More
Retirement Choice: 2007
January 1, 2007
At their 15th year of service, military personnel who are eligible and intend to serve for 20 years must choose (1) High-3 retirement plan or (2) a reduced retirement (REDUX) and $30,000 bonus at the 15th year of service. This paper is designed to help servicemembers make that decision. We describe the bonus in the second choice as an early, partial cash-out of the servicemember’s retirement pension, as the member with pay back the bonus in the form of reduced retirement checks over the entire lifetime. We calculate how much the servicemember will “pay back” (the reduction in pension benefits) and we calculate the implied APR or interest rate for this loan. For example, an E-7 who retired in 2006 at age 38 is paying an implied interest rate of 13.6% and would see retired pay reduced by $331,316 if he or she lived to 79 years. Even if the servicemember received the bonus tax free, the repayment amount is over 10 times the amount of the loan ($30,000). If the servicemember lives to 85, the repayment amount would be $438,116.
Read More

A Review of Millennial Generation Characteristics and Military Workforce Implications

As military missions increase in frequency, variety, and complexity, the need for quality, skilled, and deployable members to fulfill missions becomes more critical. Active enlisted recruitment targets in 2007 surpassed 180,000; however, there are growing difficulties in meeting recruiting goals. To complicate matters, the retirement of Baby Boomers over the next decade has the potential to leave huge gaps in the workforce. These gaps must be filled by a new generation known as the Millennials (that segment of the population born between 1980 and 2000). The American workforce is changing demographically and becoming more complex and diverse generationally, culturally, and racially. Finally, the political and economic climate has been in a state of unrest since September 11th, 2001—the beginning of the global war on terror and the subsequent wars in the Middle East. Yet employers, both military and civilian, must try to maintain workflows, missions, and goals. In a workforce climate with so many competing factors, what will it take to attract, recruit, and retain productive workers, and what role will generational change play? The 10th Quadrennial Review of Military Compensation (QRMC) asked CNA to conduct background research on Millennials (also known as the Internet Generation, Generation Next, Echo Boom, etc.) to explore the potential impact of targeted policies, especially compensation and retirement, on this cohort.

View Study

A Review of the Navy's JAG Corps (study in progress, to be completed June 2008)

In 2006, the Navy's Judge Advocate General (JAG) Corps asked the Center for Naval Analyses to review its organization and staffing, and the services it provides. CNA's Resource Analysis Division, which conducts research on manpower and personnel issues, is leading the two-year study, which will: survey the legal and other services the JAG Corps provides to the Navy and other government agencies; assess the quantity and quality of those services; assess the current numbers and propose mixes of JAG Corps personnel to determine how well they would suit the organization's assignments; and recommend ways to optimize the JAG Corps's provision of legal services.

View Study Summary

Black and Hispanic Marines: Their Accession, Representation, Success, and Retention in the Corps

An updated and expanded report on minorities' service in the Marine Corps, this study conducted by CNA researchers by order of the Marine Corps Commandant, looks at the make up of the Corps "to ensure that enlisted Marines and officers reflect the racial and ethnic characteristics of broader American society."

View Report
View News Release

Functional Review of the Judge Advocate General (JAG) Corps

Researchers from the Center for Naval Analyses have begun a review of the Navy's Judge Advocate General (JAG) Corps. The study will examine several issues, including how the JAG Corps can improve the way it provides legal services

View the Navy's Press Release

Marine Corps Deployment and Retention in FY05

CNA researchers analyzed the effects of wartime deployments on Marines making reenlistment decisions. Despite the challenges involved in regular and often long deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan, the Marine Corps successfully met its fiscal 2005 reenlistment goals.

The researchers found that:

  • First-term Marines were less likely to reenlist if they had been deployed to Iraq and Afghanistan.
  • Career Marines and commissioned officers were more likely to reenlist if they were deployed to Iraq and Afghanistan.
  • Single Marines, particularly first-termers, were less likely to reenlist than Marines with families.

Full Document

Personnel Management

Military Compensation Reform in the Department of the Navy

Policy-makers and analysts have consistently pointed to the need to reform the military compensation system. In this study for the Department of the Navy, which encompasses the Navy and the Marine Corps, economists Michael Hansen and Martha Koopman say that despite the broad consensus, transforming the system into a set of compensation tools that are aligned with the department's objectives will not be easy.

In reforming its compensation system, the authors recommend that the Department of the Navy:

  • Seek to reduce, but not eliminate, across-the-board compensation. This will allow the department to retain certain useful across-the-board salary increases while having more flexibility in using targeted pay raises.
  • Modify its existing compensation tools so that the system can reward high performance.
  • Reduce the compensation system's emphasis on deferred compensation, such as retirement pay and retiree health care, by repealing recent enhancements or, at a minimum, by aggressively resisting any further increases.

Full Document

Does Education Reform Make Recruiting More Difficult?

The number of young people who receive General Education Development (GED) certificates rather than high school diplomas has increased recently. At the same time, states are tightening their requirements for high school graduation. These changes have the potential to make recruiting more difficult because military policies strictly limit the number who may enlist without a high school diploma.

CNA researchers examined data from the 2000 Census, as well as Navy and Marine Corps service records, to discover the effects of these changing education policies and found that the changes help some civilians but harm others. Within the Navy and Marine Corps, the effects are more muted. The policies have not affected attrition rates, but have had some influence on the quality of recruits.

Full Document

Statistical Analysis of Hearing Loss among Navy Personnel

In 2004, the Veterans Administration (VA) spent $108 million dollars on hearing loss disability payments to nearly 16,000 former Navy personnel—an increase of $65 million since 1999.

CNA researchers undertook a study to assess how hearing loss relates to service time aboard ships, with the aim of reducing disabilities and costs, by examining the medical hearing test records of nearly 251,000 enlisted sailors and officers from 1979 to 2004. Comparing enlisted sailors who spent most of a 24-year Navy career assigned to a surface warship and similar sailors who spent their entire careers on shore duty, they found a 19 percentage point increase in probability that the sea-based sailors would leave the Navy with some hearing loss.

The study’s authors made several recommendations, among them that the Navy:

  • Identify opportunities for improved ship design. Locating sleeping quarters in an insulated, low-noise area, for example, would improve hearing loss recovery and prevent permanent disabilities
  • Assess whether certain ships types are more apt to cause hearing loss among sailors than others
  • Further investigate the type of ear protection it provides its personnel. For example, are ear muffs more effective than ear plugs?
  • Gather VA data on individuals who collect hearing loss disability payments to see whether there is a relationship between the time they spent at various duty stations and their disability

A follow-up study addressing the opportunities for further research is due out in late 2006.

Full Document

Non-citizens in Today’s Military

Legal permanent residents, or green card holders, are highly successful in the military, which bodes well for the Department of Defense as it examines future recruiting prospects.

The study points out that today’s foreign-born U.S. population is the largest in history, and immigrants will fuel much of the future growth among America’s youth. The authors conclude that this population could help alleviate recruiting gaps and meet current and future personnel needs, while also providing needed opportunities for new immigrants. Of the 16 million foreign-born people who came to the United States between 1990 and 2002, almost a quarter were under age 21.

But despite a large pool of roughly 1.5 million non-citizens, there are obstacles to their recruitment. The military services require that at least 90 percent of its recruits have a high school diploma, and many recent immigrants have not completed high school. Limited English proficiency among non-citizens is another challenge.

The study’s authors recommend that in order to further facilitate recruitment and retention of non-citizens, the Department of Defense should:

  • Develop recruiting materials aimed at non-citizens that explain eligibility for expedited citizenship, the benefits of filing for citizenship while in the military, and the benefits of attaining citizenship.
  • Consider more structured, installation-based assistance that would help non-citizen service members and their dependents with the citizenship process.
  • Investigate, through the Office of the Secretary of Defense, whether more uniform treatment of non-citizens across the military services is needed. Military policy is generally uniform across the services, but in matters of recruitment, reenlistment, and use of non-citizen service members, the policies of each service branch differ.

Research Brief
Full Document

Proceedings from the Navy’s Fifth Annual Workforce Conference:
Building on the Pillars of the Navy’s Human Capital Strategy

The fifth annual Navy Workforce Research and Analysis conference, held in April 2005, convened researchers from think tanks, academia, and Navy leadership and featured research presentations on manpower, personnel, and training.

Full Document
2004 Proceedings

Recruiting Hispanics: The Marine Corps Experience

The Marine Corps has been very successful at recruiting Hispanics, and Hispanic recruits do extremely well in the Marine Corps. This study highlights several challenges that may affect the Services' ability to recruit Hispanics in the future—including high levels of high school dropout rates, language fluency of recruits and their parents, and citizenship status. Recommended actions that the Department of Defense (DoD) or any organization interested in this segment of the population can take to ensure the continued success of Hispanic recruits include:

  • Supporting a stay-in-school campaign
  • Urging that the federal government raise the minimum age for taking the GED exam
  • Translating recruiting brochures and materials into a variety of languages
  • Adding country-of-origin identification to accession data
  • Ensuring Green Card Service members have information about legal permanent residency and expedited citizenship.

The Hispanic population has grown dramatically over time—from 5 percent of the population in 1975 to over 12 percent in 2003. In fact, Hispanics are the largest minority population in the United States today, and the population is predicted to grow 25 percent over the next decade. Whether recruiting for the military or for the civilian workforce, understanding how to attract and retain this segment of the U.S. population is becoming increasingly important.

Full Document

CNA's Retirement Choice Calculator: Computing DoD's Retirement Options

CNA's Retirement Choice Calculator lets future military retirees determine how much they would earn under DoD's High-3 retirement plan, which bases retirement pay on the highest average basic pay for three years of a career, or under the REDUX plan, which provides a $30,000 upfront bonus with smaller retirement checks over time. (The differing plans affect service members who joined the military after July 31, 1986.)

The calculator, developed as part of CNA’s Retirement Choice study, allows service members to determine which plan would earn them the most money based on factors including their retirement age, years of service, and the rank at which they will retire.

Full Document
View Calculator

The Effect of Enlistment Bonuses on First-Term Tenure Among Navy Enlistees

CNA examined, for the Navy Personnel Plans and Policy Division, the influence of enlistment bonuses on Navy enlistees' attrition behavior during the first term of service.

The enlistment bonus is one of the more flexible tools that the Navy has to meet its recruiting goals. The enlistment bonus can be offered at different levels to various classes of accessions. The Navy has traditionally employed these bonuses to meet several objectives and has been eager to assess the effectiveness of the enlistment bonus and the impact of enlistment bonuses on various aspects of the career decision of enlisted personnel.

Enlistment bonuses have typically been viewed as being useful in recruiting—routing personnel to a specific branch of Service, directing recruits into hard-to-fill ratings, extending sailors' obligated service, and increasing accessions during off-peak months. The findings of this study suggest that enlistment bonuses may have a secondary effect, decreasing attrition.

Full Document

Statistical Analysis of US Marine Corps Non-Combat Accidental Deaths

The Marine Corps sought to understand how individual characteristics and events may be associated with fatal accidents among Marines, in cars or in other non-combat related accidents.

The objective of the study was to determine the variety of factors that explain accidental fatality rates. The information has helped the Marine Corps to tailor safety messages to the points in a Marine's career where risk is high. Further, this study recommends that those in positions of direct leadership intervene proactively to reduce fatalities among those identified as most at risk.

Workers' Compensation: The Case for Improved Department of the Navy Management

CNA first looked at the Department of the Navy's workers' compensation program in 2001. At the request of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Navy (Safety), CNA recently updated its original analysis of the Navy's worker compensation program and recommended ways to help control costs while helping to return employees to the workplace as soon as possible.

Resource Management

Military Sealift Command Management Review: Framework for Change

The Military Sealift Command (MSC) asked CNA to review command wide personnel resource allocation, provide a plan to maximize the allocation of resources and recommend required personnel reductions.

MSC strives to improve the quality of service and reduce the cost of its services. Additionally, in September 2001, the Navy's major claimants were directed to reduce the workforce at major headquarters by 15 percent. This paper explores and provides the options available to MSC in responding to both tasks.

Navy Oil Spills in San Diego: Recent Trends and Future Prevention

The study builds on previous CNA work regarding the impact of oil spills and the Navy's efforts to reduce oil spills in the San Diego area. We analyzed and updated data to determine the root causes of oil spills and to make recommendations for further reductions.

The DoD Toxic Release Inventory: Outlook for Meeting the New 2006 Reduction Goal

At the request of the Assistant Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Environment, CNA reviewed DoD toxic release inventory data and recommended ways to meet new goals of toxic chemical reduction on federal facilities by 2006.

Impact of Marine Mammal Protection Requirements on Navy Operations

Marine mammals receive special protection under the Marine Mammal Protection Act and in many cases under the Endangered Species Act. Federal agencies, such as the Navy, are required by law to consider the potential environmental impacts of their actions on marine life. In this study CNA examines the impact of marine mammal mitigation measures on naval operations and training.

Smartship Metrics and Return on Investment

CNA determined, for the Navy, the appropriate cost/benefit metrics and performed a return on investment analysis for the systems and technologies collectively known as the Smartship Integrated Ship Controls System. The Navy developed this group of integrated systems and technologies to improve the efficiency of ship manning and maintenance.

Material & Logistics Management

Results on the Cost of the Naval Flight Hour Program

This briefing summarizes CNA's analysis of the Flight Hour Program, which includes aviation depot-level repair (AVDLR) of components. Most of our analysis focuses on AVDLR costs; however, we also include some results from our analyses of the costs of disposable/consumable parts connected with aircraft repair.

A Model to Study Consolidation and Its Impact on MC Rates and Other Readiness Measures

CNA investigated the ways in which customer wait times, cannibalization, and maintenance consolidations affect the material readiness of aircraft. We also developed several new metrics in the course of this analysis to help the Navy better understand and measure consolidation actions and their effect on mission-capable rates and other readiness measures.

Acquisition & Contracts

Designing Auctions to Generate Procurement Savings

The use of online auctions to procure routinely needed supplies and equipment has become widespread throughout DoD and other government agencies. These auctions have traditionally used a sealed-bid format in which potential suppliers are unable to view or respond to competing bids. Under a pilot program at Defense Supply Center Columbus, some items were switched to an open-bid format. CNA analysis of the purchase prices showed that open bidding lowered prices by up to 4 percent. While switching the bidding format may not yield savings in all cases, these results suggests government procurement agencies seeking the most competitive prices should carefully consider (or even experiment with) their procurement auction formats.

Choosing R&D Technology Investments

This paper examines several methods by which the Office of Naval Research can choose from among a diverse assortment of investments in research and development for science and technology, to achieve the defense goals of the Navy and the United States as a whole.

Facility Management

Installing Electric Meters at Navy Facilities: Benefits and Costs

CNA examines the costs and benefits of installing advanced electric meters and the development of an implementation strategy. Advanced electric meters can help energy managers track electricity consumption. The study was completed in anticipation of Congressional legislation that would require electric meters to be installed at federal facilities.

Housing

Does School Quality Influence Housing Choices of Navy Personnel

CNA explores the relationship between school quality and service members' housing decisions.

Many Navy personnel have a choice between military housing and civilian housing. Those with school-aged children often cited school quality as an important factor in the home buying process.

Do Military Families Achieve the American Dream? A Comparison of Navy, Marine Corps and Civilian Home Ownership Rates

Buying a home is often the biggest investment decision a family will make. Military home ownership rates are often reported to be lower than civilian rates. To test whether this is true and to learn more about the relationship between military and civilian home ownership rates, CNA looked at the rates for Navy and Marine Corps personnel who live off-base and compares those rates with civilian home ownership rates.

Housing Characteristics of Young Civilian Bachelors

One measure of suitability of military housing standards is to compare it to housing occupied by civilians with similar characteristics. In this analysis we compare housing choices of young, unmarried civilians who are similar to junior sailors. CNA conducted this study in support of the Department of Defense's effort to improve the quality of enlisted bachelor quarters.