Selected Studies

CNA Resource Analysis Publications

Active Duty Individual Manpower Augmentation: Selection and Career Impact
December 1, 2007
As the U.S. and coalition forces prosecute the Global War on Terrorism and support other contingency operations around the world, the demand for Navy manpower to augment deployed forces from all Services has increased dramatically. These manpower augmentation requirements represent unfunded, unplanned, but necessary allotments of Navy personnel to augment existing units and organizations so that Navy and Combatant Commanders can effectively perform their assigned missions. Active duty Servicemembers who are pulled from their current commands and sent on TAD orders to fill these requirements are known as Individual Augmentees (IAs). With this increased demand has come concern about the Navy’s ability to continue to effectively provide manpower to support these requests. To help the Navy address these concerns, CNA examined two issues. The first was whether Servicemembers with particular characteristics were more likely to be selected for IA assignments. Some characteristics, such as paygrade and occupation, may be explicit requirements of the IA request, while others, such as race/ethnicity and marital status, are not. The second issue was whether IA assignments have affected the career progression of active duty Servicemembers. Of particular interest are the effects on retention, promotion, and sea/shore rotation for active duty enlisted Sailors and officers.
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Retirement Choice: 2008
December 1, 2007

At their 15th year of service, military personnel who are eligible and intend to serve for 20 years must choose (1) High-3 retirement plan or (2) a reduced retirement (REDUX) and $30,000 bonus at the 15th year of service. This paper is designed to help servicemembers make that decision. We describe the bonus in the second choice as an early, partial cash-out of the servicemember’s retirement pension, as the member with pay back the bonus in the form of reduced retirement checks over the entire lifetime. We calculate how much the servicemember will “pay back” (the reduction in pension benefits) and we calculate the implied APR or interest rate for this loan. For example, an E-7 who retired in 2006 at age 38 is paying an implied interest rate of 14.0% and would see retired pay reduced by $344,434 if he or she lived to 79 years. Even if the servicemember received the bonus tax free, the repayment amount is over 10 times the amount of the loan ($30,000). If the servicemember lives to 85, the repayment amount would be $455,463.

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The Effects of Shore Billets on Aegis Fire Controlman Retention and Promotion
November 1, 2007
The Aegis Fire Controlman FC(A) community is currently undermanned at sea. This is largely because the Navy accessed Sailors to fill total FC(A) billets, which were too few due to a shortage of FC(A) shore billets. The Navy wants to have enough shore billets to accommodate projected sea-shore rotation needs. However, the Navy is concerned that adding non-FC related shore billets will decrease readiness and retention. In this study, CNA studied the effects of shore billets on retention and promotion of FC(A) sailors. We found that those who served in CONUS non-instructor, non-high-skill billets had relatively poor retention to 123 months and promotion to E-6 by 109 months. Instructors and recruiters tended to have higher promotion and retention rates, while those in non-instructor high-skill billets did not show significantly higher promotion and retention rates than those in CONUS non-instructor, non-high-skill billets. From these results, we recommend that the Navy remilitarize instructor billets when possible and continue to aggressively pursue sea duty incentives like Sea Duty Incentive Pay (SDIP). The Navy should also allow willing FC(A) Sailors to serve in recruiter, OCONUS, or non-FC instructor billets.
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The Seventh Annual Navy Workforce Research and Analysis Conference: The Road to a 2025 Total Force
November 1, 2007
The Deputy Chief of Naval Operations (Manpower, Personnel, Training & Education (N1)) has for the seventh year, asked CNA to organize a conference for the Navy manpower and training community leadership and the research organizations that support that community. The conference was held in May of 2007 and like previous conferences it was a success. Once again, the goal of the conference was to help researchers better leverage their resources, provide more useful products, and improve the overall research program. The theme of the Seventh Annual Navy Workforce Research and Analysis Conference was “The Road to a 2025 Total Force.” The title of the keynote address by ADM Patrick M. Walsh, Vice Chief of Naval Operations, was “Navy 2025—Our Role in Joint Ops and Around the World.” Researchers presented briefings in breakout sessions on manpower, personnel, training, education and related topics such as: Thinking about the Navy’s Future, Civilian Workforce Issues, Officer Education Issues, Reserve Issues, Global War on Terrorism (GWOT), Recruit, Attrition, Retention, Compensation, Diversity, and the Supply Chain. This conference report summarizes each of the breakout sessions.
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Officer Off-On Ramps
November 1, 2007

This study is part of an analysis of lateral entry as a personnel management tool for Navy enlisted personnel and officers. For officers, a critical personnel management challenge is that retention rates for women are substantially lower than those for men, particularly in the unrestricted line (URL) communities. Traditional retention tools, such as continuation bonuses, do not appear to be closing the gap in the male/female retention rates. Likewise, the observable characteristics that affect female stay/leave decisions do not translate into feasible accession or retention policies. However, survey and focus group results for both male and female officers suggest that taking time away from the active duty career to achieve a better work/life balance could help retention so long as career progression is not hindered. These breaks in service, called off-on ramps, could help achieve a better work/life balance and improve retention, although some laws and traditions must be modified to accommodate the off-on ramps. We reviewed the male/female retention rate differences in the Surface Warfare, Judge Advocate General, and Meteorology/Oceanography communities. Although the retention patterns are different across the communities, and community leaders cite different management challenges, we find that all three communities could benefit from off-on ramp programs.

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Incomplete Tours: Causes, Trends, and Differences
November 1, 2007
The Director, Military Personnel Plans and Policy Division (N13) sponsored this study to help determine to what extent enlisted sea tours are completed and extended, the sources of incomplete tours, and what policy options might effectively increase completions. A 2002 CNA study raised alarm regarding the percentage of tours that were not completed. We were asked to update the study and improve understanding of tour completion. First, we examine the proper metrics for evaluating the success of a tour. We then compute the percentage of incomplete tours and examine factors which cause variations in completion rates and in the sea time contributed by each tour. Finally, we discuss policy options that would be the most effective in increasing the amount of sea time.
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The Impact of Diversity on Air Force Mission Performance: Analysis of Deployed Service-Members' Perceptions of the Diversity/Capability Relationship
November 1, 2007
This CRM summarizes 37 Air Force servicemembers’ perceptions of the role of group diversity in determining group performance in the combat environment. The summary is based analyses of interview transcripts that were coded to separately analyze respondents' perceptions about the impact of diversity and the skills, knowledge, and experience needed to manage it. According to our analysis, the two main ways diversity was perceived to affect mission capability were in terms of group dynamics and mission accomplishment. Discussions about group dynamics related to communication, group cohesion, and trust. Discussions about mission accomplishment related to having the right people or skills to perform the tasks at hand and/or having a wide enough range of perspectives to generate creative, appropriate solutions to problems. Respondents’ perceptions about diversity management indicated that the required skills can and should be purposefully developed with training and through career experience. In general, the training should provide tools to both leverage diversity for benefits and manage it to avoid costs. Some training should provide information about relevant other groups and emphasize respect for differences. Most training, however, should focus on concrete aspects of process management.
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Billet Analysis Tool Development: Shore/ Support Manpower Requirements Module
October 1, 2007
To help the Navy study manpower requirements within its support infrastructure, CNA developed the Shore/Support Module to augment the capabilities of the Billet Analysis Tool (BAT). This module, when used in conjunction with BAT, will provide manpower analysts with more robust estimates of how changes to the force structure affect the Navy’s overall manpower requirements. The Shore/Support Module estimates the effects of force structure changes on manpower requirements in several of the Navy’s shore/support infrastructure’s work function areas—namely, the individuals account, training, maintenance, and health care services. For the individuals account, it estimates the student billet requirements for A-school training, NEC training, and Recruit training. In the area of training, it estimates instructor requirements for A- and C-school training. For maintenance functions, it estimates billet requirements at intermediate and depot-level maintenance activities that result from changing the number of ships, submarines, and aviation squadrons. And, for health care services, it estimates manpower requirements for the segment of the health care force that provides medical care to nondeployed active duty Servicemembers and their dependents but is not directly tied to medical mobilization requirements during wartime or in support of contingency operations.
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Black and Hispanic Marines: Their Accession, Representation, Success and Retention in the Corps
September 1, 2007

The Commandant of the Marine Corps wants to ensure that Marines reflect the racial and ethnic characteristics of society. This paper examines the accession, representation, success, and retention of black and Hispanic Marines in the Corps’ active component. We find that black Marines’ accession and representation shares have fallen and currently are below the relevant black shares of the U.S. population. In contrast, the accession and representation shares of Hispanic Marines have generally increased over time. We also assess the occupational distribution of black and Hispanic Marines and find that they are more likely to be concentrated in support occupations. Next, we examine retention and Quality of Life for black enlisted Marines. We find that their retention behavior indicates that they have found satisfying careers in the Corps. The Corps offers black Marines steady jobs with good economic security, and black male Marines are as likely to be married as their white counterparts. Finally, we determine the prevalence of leadership and promotion opportunities for black and Hispanic Marines. We find that black and Hispanic Marines constitute a larger share of the Corps’ top enlisted ranks than suggested by their accession shares and they have done very well in officer promotions.

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Enlisted Lateral Entry
August 1, 2007
Lateral entry in the labor force is when an employee is hired and placed in an above-entry level position. We examine the possibility for lateral entry in the Navy enlisted force. We analyze two groups of possible lateral entrants: prior service (PS) and non-prior service (NPS) recruits. We examine the experience of PS Sailors upon return to active duty. We find that PS Sailors can be demoted and have slower career progression upon their return compared to similar Sailors who do not have a break in active duty service. We also find that the pool of potential NPS lateral entrants is quite large. However, it will be a financial challenge to bring certain experienced workers into the Navy, such as those in technical occupations. In addition, the current military compensation system is not conducive to lateral entry. We recommend that the Navy build a set of consistent, streamlined policies for returning Navy veterans and recognize skills and experience gained in earlier Navy service or in the civilian sector. In addition, the Navy needs to continue to advocate for military compensation reform and expand the search for lateral entrants beyond PS personnel.
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A Review of Millennial Generation Characteristics and Military Workforce Implications

As military missions increase in frequency, variety, and complexity, the need for quality, skilled, and deployable members to fulfill missions becomes more critical. Active enlisted recruitment targets in 2007 surpassed 180,000; however, there are growing difficulties in meeting recruiting goals. To complicate matters, the retirement of Baby Boomers over the next decade has the potential to leave huge gaps in the workforce. These gaps must be filled by a new generation known as the Millennials (that segment of the population born between 1980 and 2000). The American workforce is changing demographically and becoming more complex and diverse generationally, culturally, and racially. Finally, the political and economic climate has been in a state of unrest since September 11th, 2001—the beginning of the global war on terror and the subsequent wars in the Middle East. Yet employers, both military and civilian, must try to maintain workflows, missions, and goals. In a workforce climate with so many competing factors, what will it take to attract, recruit, and retain productive workers, and what role will generational change play? The 10th Quadrennial Review of Military Compensation (QRMC) asked CNA to conduct background research on Millennials (also known as the Internet Generation, Generation Next, Echo Boom, etc.) to explore the potential impact of targeted policies, especially compensation and retirement, on this cohort.

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A Review of the Navy's JAG Corps (study in progress, to be completed June 2008)

In 2006, the Navy's Judge Advocate General (JAG) Corps asked the Center for Naval Analyses to review its organization and staffing, and the services it provides. CNA's Resource Analysis Division, which conducts research on manpower and personnel issues, is leading the two-year study, which will: survey the legal and other services the JAG Corps provides to the Navy and other government agencies; assess the quantity and quality of those services; assess the current numbers and propose mixes of JAG Corps personnel to determine how well they would suit the organization's assignments; and recommend ways to optimize the JAG Corps's provision of legal services.

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Black and Hispanic Marines: Their Accession, Representation, Success, and Retention in the Corps

An updated and expanded report on minorities' service in the Marine Corps, this study conducted by CNA researchers by order of the Marine Corps Commandant, looks at the make up of the Corps "to ensure that enlisted Marines and officers reflect the racial and ethnic characteristics of broader American society."

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View News Release

Functional Review of the Judge Advocate General (JAG) Corps

Researchers from the Center for Naval Analyses have begun a review of the Navy's Judge Advocate General (JAG) Corps. The study will examine several issues, including how the JAG Corps can improve the way it provides legal services

View the Navy's Press Release

Marine Corps Deployment and Retention in FY05

CNA researchers analyzed the effects of wartime deployments on Marines making reenlistment decisions. Despite the challenges involved in regular and often long deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan, the Marine Corps successfully met its fiscal 2005 reenlistment goals.

The researchers found that:

  • First-term Marines were less likely to reenlist if they had been deployed to Iraq and Afghanistan.
  • Career Marines and commissioned officers were more likely to reenlist if they were deployed to Iraq and Afghanistan.
  • Single Marines, particularly first-termers, were less likely to reenlist than Marines with families.

Full Document

Personnel Management

Military Compensation Reform in the Department of the Navy

Policy-makers and analysts have consistently pointed to the need to reform the military compensation system. In this study for the Department of the Navy, which encompasses the Navy and the Marine Corps, economists Michael Hansen and Martha Koopman say that despite the broad consensus, transforming the system into a set of compensation tools that are aligned with the department's objectives will not be easy.

In reforming its compensation system, the authors recommend that the Department of the Navy:

  • Seek to reduce, but not eliminate, across-the-board compensation. This will allow the department to retain certain useful across-the-board salary increases while having more flexibility in using targeted pay raises.
  • Modify its existing compensation tools so that the system can reward high performance.
  • Reduce the compensation system's emphasis on deferred compensation, such as retirement pay and retiree health care, by repealing recent enhancements or, at a minimum, by aggressively resisting any further increases.

Full Document

Does Education Reform Make Recruiting More Difficult?

The number of young people who receive General Education Development (GED) certificates rather than high school diplomas has increased recently. At the same time, states are tightening their requirements for high school graduation. These changes have the potential to make recruiting more difficult because military policies strictly limit the number who may enlist without a high school diploma.

CNA researchers examined data from the 2000 Census, as well as Navy and Marine Corps service records, to discover the effects of these changing education policies and found that the changes help some civilians but harm others. Within the Navy and Marine Corps, the effects are more muted. The policies have not affected attrition rates, but have had some influence on the quality of recruits.

Full Document

Statistical Analysis of Hearing Loss among Navy Personnel

In 2004, the Veterans Administration (VA) spent $108 million dollars on hearing loss disability payments to nearly 16,000 former Navy personnel—an increase of $65 million since 1999.

CNA researchers undertook a study to assess how hearing loss relates to service time aboard ships, with the aim of reducing disabilities and costs, by examining the medical hearing test records of nearly 251,000 enlisted sailors and officers from 1979 to 2004. Comparing enlisted sailors who spent most of a 24-year Navy career assigned to a surface warship and similar sailors who spent their entire careers on shore duty, they found a 19 percentage point increase in probability that the sea-based sailors would leave the Navy with some hearing loss.

The study’s authors made several recommendations, among them that the Navy:

  • Identify opportunities for improved ship design. Locating sleeping quarters in an insulated, low-noise area, for example, would improve hearing loss recovery and prevent permanent disabilities
  • Assess whether certain ships types are more apt to cause hearing loss among sailors than others
  • Further investigate the type of ear protection it provides its personnel. For example, are ear muffs more effective than ear plugs?
  • Gather VA data on individuals who collect hearing loss disability payments to see whether there is a relationship between the time they spent at various duty stations and their disability

A follow-up study addressing the opportunities for further research is due out in late 2006.

Full Document

Non-citizens in Today’s Military

Legal permanent residents, or green card holders, are highly successful in the military, which bodes well for the Department of Defense as it examines future recruiting prospects.

The study points out that today’s foreign-born U.S. population is the largest in history, and immigrants will fuel much of the future growth among America’s youth. The authors conclude that this population could help alleviate recruiting gaps and meet current and future personnel needs, while also providing needed opportunities for new immigrants. Of the 16 million foreign-born people who came to the United States between 1990 and 2002, almost a quarter were under age 21.

But despite a large pool of roughly 1.5 million non-citizens, there are obstacles to their recruitment. The military services require that at least 90 percent of its recruits have a high school diploma, and many recent immigrants have not completed high school. Limited English proficiency among non-citizens is another challenge.

The study’s authors recommend that in order to further facilitate recruitment and retention of non-citizens, the Department of Defense should:

  • Develop recruiting materials aimed at non-citizens that explain eligibility for expedited citizenship, the benefits of filing for citizenship while in the military, and the benefits of attaining citizenship.
  • Consider more structured, installation-based assistance that would help non-citizen service members and their dependents with the citizenship process.
  • Investigate, through the Office of the Secretary of Defense, whether more uniform treatment of non-citizens across the military services is needed. Military policy is generally uniform across the services, but in matters of recruitment, reenlistment, and use of non-citizen service members, the policies of each service branch differ.

Research Brief
Full Document

Proceedings from the Navy’s Fifth Annual Workforce Conference:
Building on the Pillars of the Navy’s Human Capital Strategy

The fifth annual Navy Workforce Research and Analysis conference, held in April 2005, convened researchers from think tanks, academia, and Navy leadership and featured research presentations on manpower, personnel, and training.

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2004 Proceedings

Recruiting Hispanics: The Marine Corps Experience

The Marine Corps has been very successful at recruiting Hispanics, and Hispanic recruits do extremely well in the Marine Corps. This study highlights several challenges that may affect the Services' ability to recruit Hispanics in the future—including high levels of high school dropout rates, language fluency of recruits and their parents, and citizenship status. Recommended actions that the Department of Defense (DoD) or any organization interested in this segment of the population can take to ensure the continued success of Hispanic recruits include:

  • Supporting a stay-in-school campaign
  • Urging that the federal government raise the minimum age for taking the GED exam
  • Translating recruiting brochures and materials into a variety of languages
  • Adding country-of-origin identification to accession data
  • Ensuring Green Card Service members have information about legal permanent residency and expedited citizenship.

The Hispanic population has grown dramatically over time—from 5 percent of the population in 1975 to over 12 percent in 2003. In fact, Hispanics are the largest minority population in the United States today, and the population is predicted to grow 25 percent over the next decade. Whether recruiting for the military or for the civilian workforce, understanding how to attract and retain this segment of the U.S. population is becoming increasingly important.

Full Document

CNA's Retirement Choice Calculator: Computing DoD's Retirement Options

CNA's Retirement Choice Calculator lets future military retirees determine how much they would earn under DoD's High-3 retirement plan, which bases retirement pay on the highest average basic pay for three years of a career, or under the REDUX plan, which provides a $30,000 upfront bonus with smaller retirement checks over time. (The differing plans affect service members who joined the military after July 31, 1986.)

The calculator, developed as part of CNA’s Retirement Choice study, allows service members to determine which plan would earn them the most money based on factors including their retirement age, years of service, and the rank at which they will retire.

Full Document
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The Effect of Enlistment Bonuses on First-Term Tenure Among Navy Enlistees

CNA examined, for the Navy Personnel Plans and Policy Division, the influence of enlistment bonuses on Navy enlistees' attrition behavior during the first term of service.

The enlistment bonus is one of the more flexible tools that the Navy has to meet its recruiting goals. The enlistment bonus can be offered at different levels to various classes of accessions. The Navy has traditionally employed these bonuses to meet several objectives and has been eager to assess the effectiveness of the enlistment bonus and the impact of enlistment bonuses on various aspects of the career decision of enlisted personnel.

Enlistment bonuses have typically been viewed as being useful in recruiting—routing personnel to a specific branch of Service, directing recruits into hard-to-fill ratings, extending sailors' obligated service, and increasing accessions during off-peak months. The findings of this study suggest that enlistment bonuses may have a secondary effect, decreasing attrition.

Full Document

Statistical Analysis of US Marine Corps Non-Combat Accidental Deaths

The Marine Corps sought to understand how individual characteristics and events may be associated with fatal accidents among Marines, in cars or in other non-combat related accidents.

The objective of the study was to determine the variety of factors that explain accidental fatality rates. The information has helped the Marine Corps to tailor safety messages to the points in a Marine's career where risk is high. Further, this study recommends that those in positions of direct leadership intervene proactively to reduce fatalities among those identified as most at risk.

Workers' Compensation: The Case for Improved Department of the Navy Management

CNA first looked at the Department of the Navy's workers' compensation program in 2001. At the request of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Navy (Safety), CNA recently updated its original analysis of the Navy's worker compensation program and recommended ways to help control costs while helping to return employees to the workplace as soon as possible.

Resource Management

Military Sealift Command Management Review: Framework for Change

The Military Sealift Command (MSC) asked CNA to review command wide personnel resource allocation, provide a plan to maximize the allocation of resources and recommend required personnel reductions.

MSC strives to improve the quality of service and reduce the cost of its services. Additionally, in September 2001, the Navy's major claimants were directed to reduce the workforce at major headquarters by 15 percent. This paper explores and provides the options available to MSC in responding to both tasks.

Navy Oil Spills in San Diego: Recent Trends and Future Prevention

The study builds on previous CNA work regarding the impact of oil spills and the Navy's efforts to reduce oil spills in the San Diego area. We analyzed and updated data to determine the root causes of oil spills and to make recommendations for further reductions.

The DoD Toxic Release Inventory: Outlook for Meeting the New 2006 Reduction Goal

At the request of the Assistant Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Environment, CNA reviewed DoD toxic release inventory data and recommended ways to meet new goals of toxic chemical reduction on federal facilities by 2006.

Impact of Marine Mammal Protection Requirements on Navy Operations

Marine mammals receive special protection under the Marine Mammal Protection Act and in many cases under the Endangered Species Act. Federal agencies, such as the Navy, are required by law to consider the potential environmental impacts of their actions on marine life. In this study CNA examines the impact of marine mammal mitigation measures on naval operations and training.

Smartship Metrics and Return on Investment

CNA determined, for the Navy, the appropriate cost/benefit metrics and performed a return on investment analysis for the systems and technologies collectively known as the Smartship Integrated Ship Controls System. The Navy developed this group of integrated systems and technologies to improve the efficiency of ship manning and maintenance.

Material & Logistics Management

Results on the Cost of the Naval Flight Hour Program

This briefing summarizes CNA's analysis of the Flight Hour Program, which includes aviation depot-level repair (AVDLR) of components. Most of our analysis focuses on AVDLR costs; however, we also include some results from our analyses of the costs of disposable/consumable parts connected with aircraft repair.

A Model to Study Consolidation and Its Impact on MC Rates and Other Readiness Measures

CNA investigated the ways in which customer wait times, cannibalization, and maintenance consolidations affect the material readiness of aircraft. We also developed several new metrics in the course of this analysis to help the Navy better understand and measure consolidation actions and their effect on mission-capable rates and other readiness measures.

Acquisition & Contracts

Designing Auctions to Generate Procurement Savings

The use of online auctions to procure routinely needed supplies and equipment has become widespread throughout DoD and other government agencies. These auctions have traditionally used a sealed-bid format in which potential suppliers are unable to view or respond to competing bids. Under a pilot program at Defense Supply Center Columbus, some items were switched to an open-bid format. CNA analysis of the purchase prices showed that open bidding lowered prices by up to 4 percent. While switching the bidding format may not yield savings in all cases, these results suggests government procurement agencies seeking the most competitive prices should carefully consider (or even experiment with) their procurement auction formats.

Choosing R&D Technology Investments

This paper examines several methods by which the Office of Naval Research can choose from among a diverse assortment of investments in research and development for science and technology, to achieve the defense goals of the Navy and the United States as a whole.

Facility Management

Installing Electric Meters at Navy Facilities: Benefits and Costs

CNA examines the costs and benefits of installing advanced electric meters and the development of an implementation strategy. Advanced electric meters can help energy managers track electricity consumption. The study was completed in anticipation of Congressional legislation that would require electric meters to be installed at federal facilities.

Housing

Does School Quality Influence Housing Choices of Navy Personnel

CNA explores the relationship between school quality and service members' housing decisions.

Many Navy personnel have a choice between military housing and civilian housing. Those with school-aged children often cited school quality as an important factor in the home buying process.

Do Military Families Achieve the American Dream? A Comparison of Navy, Marine Corps and Civilian Home Ownership Rates

Buying a home is often the biggest investment decision a family will make. Military home ownership rates are often reported to be lower than civilian rates. To test whether this is true and to learn more about the relationship between military and civilian home ownership rates, CNA looked at the rates for Navy and Marine Corps personnel who live off-base and compares those rates with civilian home ownership rates.

Housing Characteristics of Young Civilian Bachelors

One measure of suitability of military housing standards is to compare it to housing occupied by civilians with similar characteristics. In this analysis we compare housing choices of young, unmarried civilians who are similar to junior sailors. CNA conducted this study in support of the Department of Defense's effort to improve the quality of enlisted bachelor quarters.