Selected Studies

CNA Resource Analysis Publications

Provision and Use of Navy Medicine Primary Care: Empirical Background for Optimization
August 1, 2001
The purpose of this research memorandum is to report and comment on the findings of an analysis of Navy Medicine Primary Care (NMPC) to members of the Primary Care Product Line (PCPL) Advisory Board (the Board) and to the Bureau of Medicine and Surgery (BUMED). This report is part of the support that CNA is providing to the product line. It analyzes Ambulatory Data System (ADS) records of visits made to Navy Medical Treatment Facilities (MTFs) during FY 2000, as well as data from two Department of Defense (DOD) surveys that provide information on the satisfaction of users of NMPC. Its intent is to provide empirical information as background to the Board's and BUMED's optimization activities. In this report, we describe what NMPC is, based on what primary care providers (PCPs) do in Navy MTF primary care (PC) settings, and identify how and to what extent the content and nature of NMPC varies by provider and setting. This approaches NMPC from the supply side - what care is provided by whom, and where. Its focus is not on how much care is provided (e.g., number of visits) but rather on the nature and distribution of that care (e.g., percentage of visits by clinical content and provider type).
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Attrition of Navy Recruits From Initial Skills Training
July 1, 2001
The Navy expects to enlist about 55,000 sailors each year in the near future, and faces the challenge of training and delivering these recruits to operational billets. Accordingly, policy-makers wish to monitor the fraction of recruits who complete training, as well as the time it takes them to reach the fleet. In this report, we track sailors "from street to fleet, " analyzing factors that influence attrition from the Navy during the period of initial skills training. A companion report describes street-to-fleet trends and focuses on the time it takes recruits to reach the fleet. The Director, Assessment Division (N81) requested this study as part of the Navy's Manpower and Personnel Integrated Warfare Architecture (IWAR). The IWAR is a planning vehicle that uses analyses to shape long-range goals and policies. This study examines prefleet attrition from the Navy; it does not investigate losses from the fleet, attrition from specific courses, or transitions between training programs. CNA conducted a regression analysis to define patterns in attrition as they relate to gender, rating, and training time.
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Follow-on Analysis of PAY 97 Test Scores
July 1, 2001
In 1997, in a joint effort, the Department of Labor (DOL) and the Department of Defense (DOD)collected aptitude test data from the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery )ASVAB) on a nationally representative sample of youth. The tests were administered as part of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY97). A subset of data pertaining to youth 18 to 23 years of age is referred to as the Profile of American Youth (PAY 97). In 1999 CNA conducted an initial analysis of PAY 97 test scores. We concluded that the data sample was missing a large number of persons likely to deplete both the upper and lower levels of aptitude distributions. We further concluded that the loss would bias resulting norms unless corrected. We recommended weighting the data by race, gender, age, respondent's education, and a proxy for social economic status in an effort to correct the bias. The data were subsequently weighted by NORC. This report describes the follow-on analysis that we conducted on PAY 97 test scores. This work was funded by the Defense Manpower Data Center (DMDC).
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An Analysis of Organizational and Funding Alternatives for the Armed Force Institute of Pathology
July 1, 2001
The Armed Forces Institute of Pathology (AFIP) provides consulting, research, and education services to a wide range of military and some civilian medical facilities. However, the Defense Health Program must subsidize AFIP's activities with an annual budget of roughly $55 million. As part of its Revolution in Business Affairs, the Department of Defense is striving to increase efficiency by making its various activities as self-sufficient as possible. The CNA Corporation was asked to evaluate whether AFIP has the potential to become a self-sufficient organization. We also looked at a range of alternative organizational structures that might be used to run AFIP and offer some insight into the effectiveness of those structures. We believe that AFIP could exist as a fee-for-service activity, but would require significant organizational restructuring.
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America's Military: A Coat of Many Colors
July 1, 2001
Since the onset of the volunteer military almost 30 years ago (1973), the American full-time workforce has become more diverse, and the active-duty military reflects that diversity. This paper considers comparisons of full-time, military-age (18 to 44 years) civilian workers and active-duty military personnel in 1970 and 2000. In that 30-year period, percentages of civilian workers changed from 89 to 70 percent white, from 10 to 12 percent black, and from 1 to 18 percent other racial categories. The percentage of women in the civilian workforce rose from 29 to 41 percent. Percentage differences in the active-duty military population between 1970 and 2000 are comparable: from 83 to 65 percent white, from 11 to 20 percent black, and from 6 to 14 percent other racial/ethnic backgrounds. The percentage of women in the military increased from 2 to 15 percent. This research memorandum begins with a discussion of this increased diversity with the Gates Commission and the beginning of the all-volunteer force, and of how representative of society the all-volunteer force is today.
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Patterns of Ambulatory Mental Health Care in Navy Clinics
June 1, 2001
The purpose of this paper is to describe ambulatory mental health care in Navy clinics We examined outpatient mental health visits in terms of absolute numbers, focusing on patient characteristics, clinic characteristics, and visit characteristics. We use absolute numbers instead of rates because Navy Medicine does not know definitively for how many beneficiaries it is responsible for providing care. This research provides the membership of Navy Medicine's Mental Health Executive Board with a picture of recent military beneficiary use of mental health services at Navy clinics. This analysis is for use by the Mental Health Executive Board to inform its decisions regarding the Navy's provision of mental and behavioral health services.
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TACAIR Material Readiness in Operation Allied Force
June 1, 2001
This work was done as part of a larger study conducted for N814. The purpose of the larger study was to examine the link between mission performance and readiness drivers using data from CVN-71's combat operations during Operation Allied Force (OAF). In this part of the project, we looked specifically at material readiness of the embarked airwing (CVW-8). Our original intent was to estimate the parameters for a complete Markov model of aircraft material condition. We were unable to implement a complete realization of this model because of problems that included missing data and resource constraints. However, we were able to make substantial progress on two components of the process, and present these results.
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Evaluation of Access and Quality of Health Care Under the TRICARE Program (FY 2000 Report to Congress)
May 1, 2001
CRM D0003492.A1/Final The FY 2000 Evaluation of the TRICARE Program was performed jointly by the CNA Corporation and the Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA) for the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Health Affairs). The objectives of the evaluation were to assess (1) the effectiveness of the TRICARE program in improving beneficiaries' access to health care, (2) the impact of TRICARE on the quality of health care received by Military Health System (MHS) beneficiaries, and (3) the effect of TRICARE on health care costs to both the government and MHS beneficiaries. This documents represents the Center for Naval Analyses' contribution of the Evaluation of the TRICARE Program, FY 2000 Report to Congress. The full report also included IDA's evaluation of the costs to the government and beneficiaries. The TRICARE evaluation project is an ongoing effort that provides an annual report to the Congress as the program matures.
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Trends in Navy Initial Skills Training: Evidence from Street-to-Fleet Data
May 1, 2001
As part of the Navy's Manpower and Personnel Integrated Warfare Architecture (M&P IWAR), N81 asked CNA to examine trends in the training recruits receive before their first fleet assignments. The Navy expects to enlist approximately 55,000 sailors each year in the near future. The Navy's system of training and delivering these recruits to operational billets must be an efficient one. The flow of sailors into the fleet depends on two things: the number of sailors who get there and the amount of time it takes. Accordingly, policy-makers are concerned with both the attrition of recruits during the period of initial training and the lengths of the training pipelines themselves. To examine these trends, we tracked recruits' early career histories from "street-to-fleet." This report updates a 1999 CNA analysis, adding recent accessions and reflecting training reengineering that the Navy has undertaken since then. We also examine initial skills training in more detail, looking at all contract lengths (2-, 3- and 5Yos, as well as 4- and 6YOs) and at ratings.
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The Officer Structure in the 21st Century
May 1, 2001
At the beginning of the new century, the Navy is undergoing a series of major changes in the way it fights. Changes in the force structure have altered the demand on personnel. New technologies are revolutionizing Navy platforms and concepts of operations. Business practices have shifted some work previously done by military personnel to civilians in both the civil service and the private sector. Organizational changes for all the armed forces, first initiated with the passage of Goldwater-Nichols in 1986, have placed increasing control in the hands of the joint arena. This paper explores how and why an efficient military might include an increasing proportion of senior officers over time. The argument rests on four main pillars: force structure; technology; outsourcing; and joint, interagency, and international coordination.
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A Review of Millennial Generation Characteristics and Military Workforce Implications

As military missions increase in frequency, variety, and complexity, the need for quality, skilled, and deployable members to fulfill missions becomes more critical. Active enlisted recruitment targets in 2007 surpassed 180,000; however, there are growing difficulties in meeting recruiting goals. To complicate matters, the retirement of Baby Boomers over the next decade has the potential to leave huge gaps in the workforce. These gaps must be filled by a new generation known as the Millennials (that segment of the population born between 1980 and 2000). The American workforce is changing demographically and becoming more complex and diverse generationally, culturally, and racially. Finally, the political and economic climate has been in a state of unrest since September 11th, 2001—the beginning of the global war on terror and the subsequent wars in the Middle East. Yet employers, both military and civilian, must try to maintain workflows, missions, and goals. In a workforce climate with so many competing factors, what will it take to attract, recruit, and retain productive workers, and what role will generational change play? The 10th Quadrennial Review of Military Compensation (QRMC) asked CNA to conduct background research on Millennials (also known as the Internet Generation, Generation Next, Echo Boom, etc.) to explore the potential impact of targeted policies, especially compensation and retirement, on this cohort.

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A Review of the Navy's JAG Corps (study in progress, to be completed June 2008)

In 2006, the Navy's Judge Advocate General (JAG) Corps asked the Center for Naval Analyses to review its organization and staffing, and the services it provides. CNA's Resource Analysis Division, which conducts research on manpower and personnel issues, is leading the two-year study, which will: survey the legal and other services the JAG Corps provides to the Navy and other government agencies; assess the quantity and quality of those services; assess the current numbers and propose mixes of JAG Corps personnel to determine how well they would suit the organization's assignments; and recommend ways to optimize the JAG Corps's provision of legal services.

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Black and Hispanic Marines: Their Accession, Representation, Success, and Retention in the Corps

An updated and expanded report on minorities' service in the Marine Corps, this study conducted by CNA researchers by order of the Marine Corps Commandant, looks at the make up of the Corps "to ensure that enlisted Marines and officers reflect the racial and ethnic characteristics of broader American society."

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Functional Review of the Judge Advocate General (JAG) Corps

Researchers from the Center for Naval Analyses have begun a review of the Navy's Judge Advocate General (JAG) Corps. The study will examine several issues, including how the JAG Corps can improve the way it provides legal services

View the Navy's Press Release

Marine Corps Deployment and Retention in FY05

CNA researchers analyzed the effects of wartime deployments on Marines making reenlistment decisions. Despite the challenges involved in regular and often long deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan, the Marine Corps successfully met its fiscal 2005 reenlistment goals.

The researchers found that:

  • First-term Marines were less likely to reenlist if they had been deployed to Iraq and Afghanistan.
  • Career Marines and commissioned officers were more likely to reenlist if they were deployed to Iraq and Afghanistan.
  • Single Marines, particularly first-termers, were less likely to reenlist than Marines with families.

Full Document

Personnel Management

Military Compensation Reform in the Department of the Navy

Policy-makers and analysts have consistently pointed to the need to reform the military compensation system. In this study for the Department of the Navy, which encompasses the Navy and the Marine Corps, economists Michael Hansen and Martha Koopman say that despite the broad consensus, transforming the system into a set of compensation tools that are aligned with the department's objectives will not be easy.

In reforming its compensation system, the authors recommend that the Department of the Navy:

  • Seek to reduce, but not eliminate, across-the-board compensation. This will allow the department to retain certain useful across-the-board salary increases while having more flexibility in using targeted pay raises.
  • Modify its existing compensation tools so that the system can reward high performance.
  • Reduce the compensation system's emphasis on deferred compensation, such as retirement pay and retiree health care, by repealing recent enhancements or, at a minimum, by aggressively resisting any further increases.

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Does Education Reform Make Recruiting More Difficult?

The number of young people who receive General Education Development (GED) certificates rather than high school diplomas has increased recently. At the same time, states are tightening their requirements for high school graduation. These changes have the potential to make recruiting more difficult because military policies strictly limit the number who may enlist without a high school diploma.

CNA researchers examined data from the 2000 Census, as well as Navy and Marine Corps service records, to discover the effects of these changing education policies and found that the changes help some civilians but harm others. Within the Navy and Marine Corps, the effects are more muted. The policies have not affected attrition rates, but have had some influence on the quality of recruits.

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Statistical Analysis of Hearing Loss among Navy Personnel

In 2004, the Veterans Administration (VA) spent $108 million dollars on hearing loss disability payments to nearly 16,000 former Navy personnel—an increase of $65 million since 1999.

CNA researchers undertook a study to assess how hearing loss relates to service time aboard ships, with the aim of reducing disabilities and costs, by examining the medical hearing test records of nearly 251,000 enlisted sailors and officers from 1979 to 2004. Comparing enlisted sailors who spent most of a 24-year Navy career assigned to a surface warship and similar sailors who spent their entire careers on shore duty, they found a 19 percentage point increase in probability that the sea-based sailors would leave the Navy with some hearing loss.

The study’s authors made several recommendations, among them that the Navy:

  • Identify opportunities for improved ship design. Locating sleeping quarters in an insulated, low-noise area, for example, would improve hearing loss recovery and prevent permanent disabilities
  • Assess whether certain ships types are more apt to cause hearing loss among sailors than others
  • Further investigate the type of ear protection it provides its personnel. For example, are ear muffs more effective than ear plugs?
  • Gather VA data on individuals who collect hearing loss disability payments to see whether there is a relationship between the time they spent at various duty stations and their disability

A follow-up study addressing the opportunities for further research is due out in late 2006.

Full Document

Non-citizens in Today’s Military

Legal permanent residents, or green card holders, are highly successful in the military, which bodes well for the Department of Defense as it examines future recruiting prospects.

The study points out that today’s foreign-born U.S. population is the largest in history, and immigrants will fuel much of the future growth among America’s youth. The authors conclude that this population could help alleviate recruiting gaps and meet current and future personnel needs, while also providing needed opportunities for new immigrants. Of the 16 million foreign-born people who came to the United States between 1990 and 2002, almost a quarter were under age 21.

But despite a large pool of roughly 1.5 million non-citizens, there are obstacles to their recruitment. The military services require that at least 90 percent of its recruits have a high school diploma, and many recent immigrants have not completed high school. Limited English proficiency among non-citizens is another challenge.

The study’s authors recommend that in order to further facilitate recruitment and retention of non-citizens, the Department of Defense should:

  • Develop recruiting materials aimed at non-citizens that explain eligibility for expedited citizenship, the benefits of filing for citizenship while in the military, and the benefits of attaining citizenship.
  • Consider more structured, installation-based assistance that would help non-citizen service members and their dependents with the citizenship process.
  • Investigate, through the Office of the Secretary of Defense, whether more uniform treatment of non-citizens across the military services is needed. Military policy is generally uniform across the services, but in matters of recruitment, reenlistment, and use of non-citizen service members, the policies of each service branch differ.

Research Brief
Full Document

Proceedings from the Navy’s Fifth Annual Workforce Conference:
Building on the Pillars of the Navy’s Human Capital Strategy

The fifth annual Navy Workforce Research and Analysis conference, held in April 2005, convened researchers from think tanks, academia, and Navy leadership and featured research presentations on manpower, personnel, and training.

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2004 Proceedings

Recruiting Hispanics: The Marine Corps Experience

The Marine Corps has been very successful at recruiting Hispanics, and Hispanic recruits do extremely well in the Marine Corps. This study highlights several challenges that may affect the Services' ability to recruit Hispanics in the future—including high levels of high school dropout rates, language fluency of recruits and their parents, and citizenship status. Recommended actions that the Department of Defense (DoD) or any organization interested in this segment of the population can take to ensure the continued success of Hispanic recruits include:

  • Supporting a stay-in-school campaign
  • Urging that the federal government raise the minimum age for taking the GED exam
  • Translating recruiting brochures and materials into a variety of languages
  • Adding country-of-origin identification to accession data
  • Ensuring Green Card Service members have information about legal permanent residency and expedited citizenship.

The Hispanic population has grown dramatically over time—from 5 percent of the population in 1975 to over 12 percent in 2003. In fact, Hispanics are the largest minority population in the United States today, and the population is predicted to grow 25 percent over the next decade. Whether recruiting for the military or for the civilian workforce, understanding how to attract and retain this segment of the U.S. population is becoming increasingly important.

Full Document

CNA's Retirement Choice Calculator: Computing DoD's Retirement Options

CNA's Retirement Choice Calculator lets future military retirees determine how much they would earn under DoD's High-3 retirement plan, which bases retirement pay on the highest average basic pay for three years of a career, or under the REDUX plan, which provides a $30,000 upfront bonus with smaller retirement checks over time. (The differing plans affect service members who joined the military after July 31, 1986.)

The calculator, developed as part of CNA’s Retirement Choice study, allows service members to determine which plan would earn them the most money based on factors including their retirement age, years of service, and the rank at which they will retire.

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The Effect of Enlistment Bonuses on First-Term Tenure Among Navy Enlistees

CNA examined, for the Navy Personnel Plans and Policy Division, the influence of enlistment bonuses on Navy enlistees' attrition behavior during the first term of service.

The enlistment bonus is one of the more flexible tools that the Navy has to meet its recruiting goals. The enlistment bonus can be offered at different levels to various classes of accessions. The Navy has traditionally employed these bonuses to meet several objectives and has been eager to assess the effectiveness of the enlistment bonus and the impact of enlistment bonuses on various aspects of the career decision of enlisted personnel.

Enlistment bonuses have typically been viewed as being useful in recruiting—routing personnel to a specific branch of Service, directing recruits into hard-to-fill ratings, extending sailors' obligated service, and increasing accessions during off-peak months. The findings of this study suggest that enlistment bonuses may have a secondary effect, decreasing attrition.

Full Document

Statistical Analysis of US Marine Corps Non-Combat Accidental Deaths

The Marine Corps sought to understand how individual characteristics and events may be associated with fatal accidents among Marines, in cars or in other non-combat related accidents.

The objective of the study was to determine the variety of factors that explain accidental fatality rates. The information has helped the Marine Corps to tailor safety messages to the points in a Marine's career where risk is high. Further, this study recommends that those in positions of direct leadership intervene proactively to reduce fatalities among those identified as most at risk.

Workers' Compensation: The Case for Improved Department of the Navy Management

CNA first looked at the Department of the Navy's workers' compensation program in 2001. At the request of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Navy (Safety), CNA recently updated its original analysis of the Navy's worker compensation program and recommended ways to help control costs while helping to return employees to the workplace as soon as possible.

Resource Management

Military Sealift Command Management Review: Framework for Change

The Military Sealift Command (MSC) asked CNA to review command wide personnel resource allocation, provide a plan to maximize the allocation of resources and recommend required personnel reductions.

MSC strives to improve the quality of service and reduce the cost of its services. Additionally, in September 2001, the Navy's major claimants were directed to reduce the workforce at major headquarters by 15 percent. This paper explores and provides the options available to MSC in responding to both tasks.

Navy Oil Spills in San Diego: Recent Trends and Future Prevention

The study builds on previous CNA work regarding the impact of oil spills and the Navy's efforts to reduce oil spills in the San Diego area. We analyzed and updated data to determine the root causes of oil spills and to make recommendations for further reductions.

The DoD Toxic Release Inventory: Outlook for Meeting the New 2006 Reduction Goal

At the request of the Assistant Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Environment, CNA reviewed DoD toxic release inventory data and recommended ways to meet new goals of toxic chemical reduction on federal facilities by 2006.

Impact of Marine Mammal Protection Requirements on Navy Operations

Marine mammals receive special protection under the Marine Mammal Protection Act and in many cases under the Endangered Species Act. Federal agencies, such as the Navy, are required by law to consider the potential environmental impacts of their actions on marine life. In this study CNA examines the impact of marine mammal mitigation measures on naval operations and training.

Smartship Metrics and Return on Investment

CNA determined, for the Navy, the appropriate cost/benefit metrics and performed a return on investment analysis for the systems and technologies collectively known as the Smartship Integrated Ship Controls System. The Navy developed this group of integrated systems and technologies to improve the efficiency of ship manning and maintenance.

Material & Logistics Management

Results on the Cost of the Naval Flight Hour Program

This briefing summarizes CNA's analysis of the Flight Hour Program, which includes aviation depot-level repair (AVDLR) of components. Most of our analysis focuses on AVDLR costs; however, we also include some results from our analyses of the costs of disposable/consumable parts connected with aircraft repair.

A Model to Study Consolidation and Its Impact on MC Rates and Other Readiness Measures

CNA investigated the ways in which customer wait times, cannibalization, and maintenance consolidations affect the material readiness of aircraft. We also developed several new metrics in the course of this analysis to help the Navy better understand and measure consolidation actions and their effect on mission-capable rates and other readiness measures.

Acquisition & Contracts

Designing Auctions to Generate Procurement Savings

The use of online auctions to procure routinely needed supplies and equipment has become widespread throughout DoD and other government agencies. These auctions have traditionally used a sealed-bid format in which potential suppliers are unable to view or respond to competing bids. Under a pilot program at Defense Supply Center Columbus, some items were switched to an open-bid format. CNA analysis of the purchase prices showed that open bidding lowered prices by up to 4 percent. While switching the bidding format may not yield savings in all cases, these results suggests government procurement agencies seeking the most competitive prices should carefully consider (or even experiment with) their procurement auction formats.

Choosing R&D Technology Investments

This paper examines several methods by which the Office of Naval Research can choose from among a diverse assortment of investments in research and development for science and technology, to achieve the defense goals of the Navy and the United States as a whole.

Facility Management

Installing Electric Meters at Navy Facilities: Benefits and Costs

CNA examines the costs and benefits of installing advanced electric meters and the development of an implementation strategy. Advanced electric meters can help energy managers track electricity consumption. The study was completed in anticipation of Congressional legislation that would require electric meters to be installed at federal facilities.

Housing

Does School Quality Influence Housing Choices of Navy Personnel

CNA explores the relationship between school quality and service members' housing decisions.

Many Navy personnel have a choice between military housing and civilian housing. Those with school-aged children often cited school quality as an important factor in the home buying process.

Do Military Families Achieve the American Dream? A Comparison of Navy, Marine Corps and Civilian Home Ownership Rates

Buying a home is often the biggest investment decision a family will make. Military home ownership rates are often reported to be lower than civilian rates. To test whether this is true and to learn more about the relationship between military and civilian home ownership rates, CNA looked at the rates for Navy and Marine Corps personnel who live off-base and compares those rates with civilian home ownership rates.

Housing Characteristics of Young Civilian Bachelors

One measure of suitability of military housing standards is to compare it to housing occupied by civilians with similar characteristics. In this analysis we compare housing choices of young, unmarried civilians who are similar to junior sailors. CNA conducted this study in support of the Department of Defense's effort to improve the quality of enlisted bachelor quarters.